These elections alone are approaching a billion USD already. The theory of prediction markets is that people with inside knowledge would bet according to that and thus people would learn real world outcomes before the fact no matter how irrational the bet might look and no matter whether the entity who influences the outcome does the betting or just somebody who is in on the information.
So let's say some entity wants to prevent Kamala as the next president. It doesn't matter if that is via assassination, election fraud, kidnapping, blackmail or what not, anybody who was in on the conspiracy could make a bet accordingly. This in turn would signal to Kamala's team that something was off but not what exactly. Now somebody able to foil the conspiracy could also get a betting position in favor of Kamala. Etc.
I love prediction markets. I only don't love that this Polymarket is not built on Bitcoin 🥲
Leo Wandersleb
npub1gm…78rf6
2024-08-14 00:35:58
in reply to nevent1q…2nwm
Author Public Key
npub1gm7tuvr9atc6u7q3gevjfeyfyvmrlul4y67k7u7hcxztz67ceexs078rf6Published at
2024-08-14 00:35:58Event JSON
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"content": "These elections alone are approaching a billion USD already. The theory of prediction markets is that people with inside knowledge would bet according to that and thus people would learn real world outcomes before the fact no matter how irrational the bet might look and no matter whether the entity who influences the outcome does the betting or just somebody who is in on the information.\n\nSo let's say some entity wants to prevent Kamala as the next president. It doesn't matter if that is via assassination, election fraud, kidnapping, blackmail or what not, anybody who was in on the conspiracy could make a bet accordingly. This in turn would signal to Kamala's team that something was off but not what exactly. Now somebody able to foil the conspiracy could also get a betting position in favor of Kamala. Etc.\n\nI love prediction markets. I only don't love that this Polymarket is not built on Bitcoin 🥲 ",
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