For those not on Twitter:
Event horizon... my sequence of events (just a guess):
1. Remove US debt ceiling ✅
2. Massive debt issuance ✅
3. Absorb much of debt issuance via T-bill issuance and absorption from the overnight reverse repo (ORR) market ✅
4. ORR is depleted sometime in 1H 2024
5. Treasury market shows increased instability (via high and rising MOVE index)
6. Treasury slows issuance
7. Fed implements mandatory increased bank reserve requirements to help absorb Treasury issuance
8. US Treasury debt issuance speeds up
9. Severe bond market instability as private sector liquidity has been fully tapped dry
10. Financial institutions start to fail in earnest; contagion risks heightened
11. Risk assets crumble with extreme volatility
12. New Fed liquidity patches initiated/revived, but with little effect
13. Bear market recession; proverbial "blood in the streets"
14. Fed declares massive #QE
15. Bottom in risk assets; #bitcoin soars to new highs by late 2024-early 2025
Dr. Jeff / Dr. Jeff Ross
npub1k7…3c04l
2023-10-19 13:24:40
Author Public Key
npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04lPublished at
2023-10-19 13:24:40Event JSON
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"content": "For those not on Twitter:\n\nEvent horizon... my sequence of events (just a guess):\n1. Remove US debt ceiling ✅\n2. Massive debt issuance ✅\n3. Absorb much of debt issuance via T-bill issuance and absorption from the overnight reverse repo (ORR) market ✅\n4. ORR is depleted sometime in 1H 2024\n5. Treasury market shows increased instability (via high and rising MOVE index)\n6. Treasury slows issuance\n7. Fed implements mandatory increased bank reserve requirements to help absorb Treasury issuance\n8. US Treasury debt issuance speeds up\n9. Severe bond market instability as private sector liquidity has been fully tapped dry\n10. Financial institutions start to fail in earnest; contagion risks heightened\n11. Risk assets crumble with extreme volatility\n12. New Fed liquidity patches initiated/revived, but with little effect\n13. Bear market recession; proverbial \"blood in the streets\"\n14. Fed declares massive #QE \n15. Bottom in risk assets; #bitcoin soars to new highs by late 2024-early 2025",
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