But in the wine world, we don’t have to guess.
In 2018, 25% tariffs were placed on Chinese wine bottles—70% of the U.S. supply at the time.
Here’s how things look 7 years later.🍷🧵
Chinese glass was everywhere.
It was cheaper and easy to get ahold of.
I used some for my first vintage.
They worked, but the quality was inconsistent.
You’d get bottles with enough size variation to make some of your labels go on crooked.
Not ideal.
After the 2018 tariffs, Chinese imports dropped in half.
Their share of the U.S. wine bottle market fell from around 70% to about 30%.
No one was ready to expand production in size.
Wine bottle prices have gone up around 47% since 2018.
For the sake of comparison, CPI is up 27% over the same time
Some of that was tariffs. Some of it was supply chain chaos during COVID, but it's not like those prices will ever go down.
Mexico stepped up.
Saverglass doubled its capacity.
Mexico went from 5% to 15% of the U.S. wine bottle market.
The U.S. modernized its plants, but didn’t add much new capacity.
Today, we produce around 40–45% of what we use up from 30% in 2018.
Still not self-sufficient.
By late 2023, Chinese imports were climbing again.
China now makes up 30–35% of the U.S. wine bottle supply.
And through April 2025, 750ml bottles from China are up 53% year-to-date.
They improved their quality and found supply chain loopholes to route around some of the tariffs
If tariffs go up again, the shock won’t be as severe as 2018.
But the system is still fragile.
The U.S. hasn’t built much new capacity.
Mexico is near its limit.
And China remains the pressure valve for global glass supply.
IF more tariffs come, we don’t need hypotheticals—we have a 7-year case study.
Imports dropped.
Prices rose.
Supply scrambled.
Not everything recovered.
If this helped you understand the complexities, give the this post a like or a reNOST
I'll have more deep dives coming soon
