Sam (Ethical Revolution) 🌱✌️ on Nostr: I disagree they were unlucky Spain scored three. You could say they were unlucky they ...

I disagree they were unlucky Spain scored three. You could say they were unlucky they came up against a good side who were too good. But Spain were good, not lucky.

I agree that Croatia were unlucky not to score themselves.

See my other replies on my point re xG and missing the ‘than bad’ part of the OP.

I was only talking about xG but I guess attack momentum might be deemed the same thing. A team with better attack momentum but my granny up front unable to finish any chances wouldn’t make them unlucky. Similarly a team with little attack momentum but Messi up top to score a few worldies aren’t lucky. Over-reliance on these stats looks at matches as robotic events assuming all 22 players are equal, which is never the case in reality. They’re a good tool for analysis and break down but only if they’re paired with the reality of events, not when used as the sole evidence of something.