I've thought a lot about this, and base my personal presumptions on the power law model found at https://www.porkopolis.io/thechart/ which says on January 1st 2027 the bottom will be $70k.
Comparing crashes, every time the price has crashed to a bottom of 80% or more down from it's all time high.
Considering this, I expect 5x the bottom of $70k to be the top. Or $350k. it could stutter before then, or crash less or more than 80%+, but even if it were to "only" crash 75% from it's ATH, than we're looking at a $280k top. Anything could happen though, so I'm personally guessing the top will be anywhere between $225k - $450k. If one were to sell any of their stack anywhere in that range, they'd be able to buy back in a year later and increase their position.
This actually helps both the Bitcoiner and the Bitcoin Network overall, because they're extracting economic energy from the liquidity pool when it's too high and at unsustainable levels, and inserting it again when it's at levels that are too low and where people are hurting because of it.
TheBitcoinBattery / ₿ = Perfectly stored time + energy
npub1kl…fq497
2024-08-29 15:37:01
in reply to nevent1q…qm26
Author Public Key
npub1kl8aguhljq6yrmrv64dm2phew3pprfhx3ef9yh2zg3gkn0dq8adqzfq497Published at
2024-08-29 15:37:01Event JSON
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"content": "I've thought a lot about this, and base my personal presumptions on the power law model found at https://www.porkopolis.io/thechart/ which says on January 1st 2027 the bottom will be $70k.\n\nComparing crashes, every time the price has crashed to a bottom of 80% or more down from it's all time high.\n\nConsidering this, I expect 5x the bottom of $70k to be the top. Or $350k. it could stutter before then, or crash less or more than 80%+, but even if it were to \"only\" crash 75% from it's ATH, than we're looking at a $280k top. Anything could happen though, so I'm personally guessing the top will be anywhere between $225k - $450k. If one were to sell any of their stack anywhere in that range, they'd be able to buy back in a year later and increase their position.\n\nThis actually helps both the Bitcoiner and the Bitcoin Network overall, because they're extracting economic energy from the liquidity pool when it's too high and at unsustainable levels, and inserting it again when it's at levels that are too low and where people are hurting because of it.",
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