flix on Nostr: With 2024 data, I would assign the following probabilities: INTERNET 60% E-GOLD 5% ...

With 2024 data, I would assign the following probabilities:

INTERNET 60%
E-GOLD 5%
BETAMAX 15%
TULIP 0%
FAIL 0%
NICHE 20%

We can discard the FAIL scenario. It's incompatible with current adoption data. We can also discard the TULIP scenario since 2017. Recurring booms are not part of a mere one-off financial bubble.

Can we completely discard E-GOLD? Could the government still shut down Bitcoin? I believe the evidence, including goverments that have already tried, says that this is highly unlikely.

Could something better make Bitcoin obsolete? I think it unlikely in the short term, but it's never impossible in tech.

Could Bitcoin adoption stagnate at current levels and never reach mainstream penetration? Remaining a NICHE tech for the foreseeable future? It's possible... but we will know very soon. Data coming in the next couple of years will answer the question of whether Bitcoin can cross the chasm.

I would argue that we already have enough data to answer that, but we will definitely have more than enough soon.