The US debt is out of control
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It is plausible that soon after the next presidential election this next November 2024, independently of who wins, USA may have to deal with a new black swan event, of course, pure speculation, it seems many dooms day analysts are calling for it and even some of them, those that are normally bullish like Albert Edwards (A global strategist at Societe Generale) or Matt Gertken (Chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research) are considering the possibility.
If it happens, How would it affect Bitcoin price?
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Historically, Bitcoin has reacted positively to economic turmoil, often being seen as a safe haven, therefore, IMO, it could drive additional demand for it, potentially increasing its value exponentially.
Why not Gold but Bitcoin?
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IMO, Bitcoin today has way more chances than ever before to gain terrain over Gold as safe haven, Gold is a \(10T MC, Bitcoin is \)1.34T MC.
Reasoning:
Demographics: The X generation is taking over the BB generation, billions of dollars are moving to a generation that is quite aware of Bitcoin and could move some of the assets currently in Gold by their late parents into Bitcoin.
Validation: Bitcoin have been demonized for a long time by most of the banksters and politicians in their pockets. The tune is changing and we have a presidential candidate with chances to win pro Bitcoin as well as his chosen partner running for VP. The same candidate has spoken opening of removing the current head of the SEC. All of this means that regulation will change further positively in favor of Bitcoin investors since it validates further Bitcoin as a safe haven.
Adoption: The adoption of Bitcoin is currently quite small. In our Bitcoin world we tend to think is larger, but, the company Chainanalysis reported in their 2023 Global Crypto Adoption Index that only 1.83% of the worldwide population own cryptocurrencies, but it does not break down this figure by specific cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin. Other sources report that the adoption is closer to 13% for all crypto, which is quite a jump from 1.83% but considering that Chainanalysis is a well funded company exclusively dedicated to the crypto industry lets go with that number. Very low. Now, considering that the banksters are joining the party, soon, the vast majority of the population will have access to the asset, not only via ETF, but like a stock, it will be custodial, it will be on the bank apps, very similar to Coinbase but accessible to everyone, including all generations and independently of the technical level. As internet did, it will move from the tech savvy to the tech enthusiasts and last but not least (we are getting there) to the whole population.
Summary My opinion is that we moon in a black swan scenario. Perhaps the uncertainty will create a dip at first, but the smart money will move, as it always does, to safe havens, and Bitcoin has become one of them.
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What do you think? Did I miss something?