BitcoinAlchemist
James Pierog

Co-Founder & CEO of Bitcoin Prediction Market

Public Key

npub1u8r69esh5r7jt29nj9ufmz4yvuwp6cwl5xqp4e3d46vl8wla5smsexjcky

NIP-57 Address

fragrantshadow540119@getalby.com

Profile Code

nprofile1qqswr3azuct6plf94zeez7ya32jxw8qav806rqq6uck6ax0nh076gdcppamhxue69uhkummnw3ezumt0d5q3xamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7tpvfkx2tn0wfns3q0yfx

Publishing to

nostr.mom

relayable.org

novoa.nagoya

Author Public Key

npub1u8r69esh5r7jt29nj9ufmz4yvuwp6cwl5xqp4e3d46vl8wla5smsexjcky

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Last Notes

2024-11-14 21:48:55

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I haven't been able to conceptualize a mechanism that incentivises honesty, so the oracle problem really just boils down to a web-of-trust/reputation scheme.
The critical problem is more so that there needs to be some agent receiving bets (as Bitcoin/Lightning transactions) and that same agent redistributes rewards. If there is no centralized agent, then it could be conceptualized as a decentralized p2p betting market, but then there is no forecasting benefit that a prediction market provides, it's just people placing/taking bets at whatever odds they are comfortable with.

2024-11-14 21:31:09

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The issue with prediction markets is that they are centralized trusted third parties that aggregate bets to forecast event outcomes. Centralized helps because it enables more aggregation of information, but also it opens the market to threats from hostile agents.
I've thought about how to do decentralized prediction markets, and I've found that simplistic "betting markets" are possible, but not LMSR based prediction markets that provide forecasting alongside betting.

2024-11-14 21:28:03

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We're working on developing an LMSR based prediction market where you can buy and sell shares. Once that's launched we can develop extra features like a nostr bot to broadcast trading activity (while maintaining privacy).
Nostr login + lightning login will also be integrated

2024-10-29 17:58:21

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Hi whats up

2024-10-28 22:14:36

Betting on elections is fun but I agree with Chomsky here.
https://image.nostr.build/74c3e6d549bc620fe71f0f25a7fb1c58ccba1a749f0f1fe93fceaa68e495eff1.jpg

2024-10-25 15:11:27

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Founder here. Yeah you can’t exit the bets, it’s similar format to a horse race. If you bet correctly we’ll send you a payout to your lightning address, after overwhelming consensus is reached as to who is elected. I’m guessing there will be some conflict after voting is done, so we’ll wait to resolve until after news media + polymarket resolves.
We’re currently building a mechanism to trade shares with Bitcoin (on-chain + Lightning). Then we can list events that are much further in the future, which is what I’m personally excited about.

2024-10-06 03:40:16

https://m.primal.net/LMdk.png

2024-10-06 03:21:28

me on nostr talking about nostr https://image.nostr.build/99e893f7f45e07042dd96b3216d2af35abd8e962ebc488077e3669546c0729b0.jpg

2024-10-02 09:11:11

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Why not respected? Are they using the free and permissionless internet protocol differently than how others want them to use it?

2024-10-02 07:28:28

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Which clients allow users to request content deletion? Would love to try them out. I’ve been feeling that lack of content deletion is missing UX for nostr based social media for some time.

2024-10-01 05:33:10

https://youtu.be/5vOpZRbqdEE

2024-09-30 18:11:40

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The majority of hashrate mines for profit. It’s not about what should be, but about what is. It is the case that most large miners are energy arbitrage plays, or ways to mine shareholders in public markets.
Pubcos will absolutely remain compliant, or else they can’t use the ATM to mine their shareholders. That means complying with OFAC sanctions regulation.
I love the bitaxe movement and it enables individuals like you and me to participate in the mining ecosystem, but the problems of censorship on Bitcoin are far bigger than what any of the bitaxe miners can actually solve.
I agree that it should be a norm, but I also see the reality that it isn’t a norm, and changing behaviour en masse is extremely challenging. The elites needed to use many PR tricks to scam the sheeple into injections and mask wearing. That level of behaviour change requires a massive propaganda campaign, which is something not in the budget of an open source movement.
The state has already broached the plan of a feather fork and high level policy circles are talking about it. Bitaxes don’t solve this—it’s an absolutely real threat to base layer censorship resistance, and the tornadocash/samourai wallet trials are setting the precedent to enable the state to fuck the pools and the miners so hard that they mine compliant blocks.
The way we overcome this is +30% of global hashrate distributed across many small and non-compliant pools to make it more difficult for policies like this to be enforced. Bitaxes can be a part of this for sure, but they will be a small part of what needs to be hundreds of exahash to overcome this scale of an attack.
https://youtu.be/jiNo-T71FLk?si=gPrEzu75Gn6c9Pfw

2024-09-30 07:42:19

Mining pool centralization is fundamentally caused by capital centralization.
Miners use pools to reduce their variance, and pools mine for other pools (as proxies) to reduce their variance.
Mining pools will only become decentralized if the capital to reduce payout variance becomes decentralized.
Until then variance based pooling pressure will cause further hashrate aggregation into megapools that threaten the censorship resistance of Bitcoin.

2024-09-28 19:07:28

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Play the victim instead of have a conversation sure
Eat my shoe you clown, you’re literally just larping like a fool

2024-09-28 19:05:15

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Before starting Bitcoin Prediction Market my co-founder and I were iterating through a few variations of social/art/music betting webapps, which are no longer online. We tried gamifying the music/art/money interaction so as to take it a step beyond tipping, which many already had links for (paypal, buy me a coffee, pateron, etc). In gamifying the UX we thought we could make the money component more interesting.
We talked to hundreds of music producers and artists and they were intrigued at the idea of receiving money, but none were interested in actually participating in a v4v economy. Their main objective was more views and more fans—they wanted to publish to the widest possible audience and gain as much reach as possible.
Legacy music industry has convoluted publishing rights deals, and it gets even worse with labels. Artists are mostly chasing after fans because most people don’t care about their music anyways. Even big producers who got tiktok famous are not interested in a few sats here or there. They either want collabs with more famous artists (signed with labels and have convoluted publishing royalty deals) or they want to promote their music and get more views.
Beatstars and airbit already sell the dream of licensing beats so producers can make a living (and artgrab/redbubble does for artists), and some are succeeding. If u have over 1m listens per month spotify cheques can sustain you as a solo/small artist.
When we tried communicating the new digital economy pitch these artists really didn’t care. They saw the current internet as that new digital economy that already existed. I was even making money off my beats from beatstars way before v4v was a thing. Creator economy is run on paypal.
The worst thing is when these artists said adding money convoluted the art and made it all about money. At the end of the day they r in the business of making art or music because they love art or music, not because they love money… They just want to make enough to do what they love, and that comes by creating a business. Unless they can find customers (fans or other artists willing to license their stuff) then u can’t make money as an artist, and it’s just a hobby u do for the love of it…

2024-09-28 18:48:24

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https://image.nostr.build/ebffe75881de1afd06f1e13614fa1b10663ed0f80ed6506a215e90a1697fb6e3.jpg

2024-09-28 18:44:47

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Sounds like you’re offended. How about let’s start with why you believe everyone should switch to v4v if the vast majority of creators don’t know about it and don’t care.
I’ve put a lot of effort into trying to onboard artists and music producers onto different platforms and I’ve actually received their feedback. They don’t care. They mostly want to make art or music and share with the widest possible audience.
Where’s your proof of work besides being inspired by a podcaster?

2024-09-28 18:40:07

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Why don’t you get off your ass and try to onboard real users. Then you’ll see how hard it is to change people’s mind when it comes to the social platforms they use. Your talk is cheap. It reflects your lack of experience in actually building product and talking to users.

2024-09-28 18:35:23

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Yeah this is the standard response to any criticism to the echo chamber of nostr worship. I’m on here because I want freedom technology to flourish, but I also tried and failed to build freedom tech products that people want.
Maybe instead of spitballing cheap ideas you actually tried to build something your perspective would change. Talk to real users instead of larping online.
Value signal > virtue signal.
All you have is cheap talk with no real effort behind it. Creating a future where freedom can flourish isn’t gonna happen by someone else putting in effort on your behalf.

2024-09-28 17:38:08

Is nostr resistant to the self-censorship induced by the peer pressure of an echo chamber?

2024-09-28 17:37:21

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Love on nostr
But resistance on Twitter?
If nobody has any hot takes on nostr whats the damn point of the censorship resistance of it

2024-09-28 17:35:13

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Nobody gonna censor nostr if nobody important is saying anything that is worth censoring
Most of this shit is gm anyways lmao who cares about censoring that
Censorship resistance is only tested once the censors apply pressure

2024-09-28 17:29:01

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Best of luck competing with the network effects of established and well-capitalised corporations.
Nostr might be cool tech, but it’ll remain niche until there are platforms with order of magnitude improvements in the eyes of ordinary users.
Trying to reinvent the wheel will only result in wasted work. Creator platforms already exist that seek to enable monetization, so v4v is not an actual selling point for normie creators. Bitcoin is also a tough sell unless you’re already orange-pilled and own sats. It’s an uphill battle.
Build something users want, that’s the only way they’ll use it. Don’t force tech down their throats because you drank the freedom tech kool aid.

2024-09-28 08:55:40

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The reality is nostr is competing with the network effects of established and well capitalised social media companies. VCs love network effects because they are a wonderful moat for a business.
Unless there is an order of magnitude improvement in some domain, nostr is destined to remain a niche platform for enthusiasts of freedom technology.
Censorship resistance doesn’t mean anything for those who are not getting censored.
Freedom means nothing for those who are happy with being enslaved.
Looking at the state of the world, are you bullish on people breaking out of their reality boxes and seeing through the veil, or would they be happier to remain ignorant?

2024-09-28 07:55:11

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Good to step outside of the echo chamber and hear some real feedback
Not too many ideologues on here will appreciate that though

2024-09-26 10:31:10

Nostr is the perfect identity and information transport layer to enable decentralized prediction markets. Bitcoin is the best monetary layer to facilitate purchasing of shares of event derivatives.
The question is this: what's the most decentralized and secure mechanism to enable tokenized shares of event derivatives similar to polymarket? In order for a prediction market to utilize LMSR (or some LMSR variant) it must have a limit order book to buy/sell shares in such a contract. Furthermore, those shares must be redeemable for Bitcoin after the event occurs.
Current bottleneck in prediction markets on Bitcoin is this token/share mechanism to enable price discovery (and therefore probability forecasting). If we can solve this then we can make a prediction market where anyone can ask any question they want, and provide liquidity to elicit responses from experts (or degens).

2024-09-26 09:53:05

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I’d love to use some kind of nostr based private messaging protocol, but I have yet to find one. Something based on simple well-researched cryptography.
Alice and Bob should be able to find each other and just do a simple key exchange protocol. Then they can symmetric key encrypt all messages in their messaging session. Even better if the keys are ephemeral/single use. Regardless of the relays they use it shouldn’t compromise their privacy and if keys are ephemeral then it would be quite resistant to censorship.
Someone like opensats should fund some work in that direction. If u know of any nostr messaging apps/services please do recommend.

2024-09-20 13:37:18

Lack of edit and delete functions on nostr is a bug not a feature
#note1jfa…htvs

2024-09-17 06:14:04

Nostr apps should not try to rhyme with nostr
Shit is corny
Especially if the name is unreadable
How do you even pronounce @npub16el…c6d7 ???
I want to like these new things but being this unpronounceable is not helpful…

2024-09-17 04:37:54

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Rate cut => carry trade unwind?
Pls educate me

2024-09-17 01:33:09

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Haha thanks for the feedback as well. That’s our MVP that we built a few months back. We’re building a proper event derivatives platform with DLCs for bigger bets over longer timeframes for pools like Ocean, Demand, and other small PPLNS pools (1 difficulty epoch timeframe or longer). Lightning just wasn’t good enough to do betting/hedging for large amounts with so many payment pathfinding issues. Plus we didn’t like the custodial aspect of it too much, would much rather do non-custodial betting/hedging so there’s less risk.

2024-09-17 00:39:01

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Yeah but if we’re not careful hashrate is gonna end up the same way… Mining is already centralized around the central banker fiat money printer. Miners have already kissed the ring of fiat money and pools are mining for each other so it’s not like that much better in terms of centralization for PoW…
Literally all it takes is gun to the pool operator head and enforcement of compliant blocks by intel agencies is accomplished (re: feather fork and Carol House). I bet they’re just waiting for hashrate to consolidate a little more and then they’ll strike.
It’s not if but when. Eth has no chance ofc but Bitcoin is honestly not doing too much better… Bitcoiners patting themselves on the back before actually fighting the battle…

2024-09-16 13:11:19

Hedging hashrate enables miners and pools to reduce their variance while maintaining ownership over their hashrate and block templates.
Currently the only mechanism to reduce variance is hashrate aggregation into pools. Variance based pooling pressure incentivises mining pool centralization.
Hedging hashrate enables a sustainable decentralization of hashrate. The DLCs can be structured to incentivise pools to maintain lower global hashrate because a smaller probability pool yields a higher variance reduction.

2024-09-16 09:22:39

The set of what ideas people virtue signal for on social media
Vs
The set of ideas people actually believe
Vs
The set of products people will pay for and use
These sets often have little overlap.
The false significance created by echo chamber virtue signallers often misdirect the well-intentioned efforts of independent contributors to build useless things that sound nice but aren’t actually useful.
Value signal > virtue signal
Build for your customers. They will pay you for your service.

2024-09-05 17:19:15

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Start with group theory/abstract algebra, and from there learn some cryptography basics

2024-09-01 07:32:31

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For those who have trouble with the link the title of the lecture notes is called “Cartesian Economics: The Bearing of Physical Science upon State Stewardship”

2024-09-01 07:31:18

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http://habitat.aq.upm.es/boletin/n37/afsod.en.html
This is what I read to get a good understanding. I think he has a longer book that dives much deeper called “Wealth, Virtual Wealth, and Debt”

2024-09-01 07:22:21

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Debt, with the help of compound interest, is the only asset class that grows without any regard to entropy. All assets depreciate, and require external energy as inputs to reverse entropy. Not debt. Debt grows infinitely with mathematical precision over time. With the help of state violence, it is the perfect scam to enslave populations.
Fredrick Soddy talked about this in his books on thermoeconomics back 100 years ago. He predicted everything would be swallowed up by debt as it has been today.

2024-07-15 16:41:01

“Great truths do not take hold of the hearts of the masses. And now, as the world is in error, how shall I, though I know the true path, how shall I guide? If I know that I cannot succeed and yet try to force success, this world would be but another source of error. Better then to desist and strive no more. But if I do not strive, who will?” — Zhuangzi
https://m.primal.net/JRpW.jpg

2024-07-15 09:23:02

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If the pool has 15% of global hashrate then hedging is still a good idea.
By hedging miners and pools can eliminate payout swings due to pure randomness.
Making money most of the time reduces the risk of not making money sometimes!
https://m.primal.net/JRXK.png

2024-07-15 09:22:16

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This chart shows the variance reduction if the pool has 3% of global hashrate (the pool in the first chart has 5% of global hashrate).
The reduction in expected value reflects the value of the insurance that the miners purchase by hedging.
https://m.primal.net/JRXG.png

2024-07-15 09:21:37

Hedging hashrate reduces Bitcoin mining pool block reward variance.
This chart shows the expected earnings of a pool if they bet against themselves every block for one difficulty epoch.
By hedging hashrate every block, pools reduce 2 standard deviations of risk to less than 1.
https://m.primal.net/JRXD.png

2024-07-15 08:11:01

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Nostr is the propaganda machine for the people and by the people

2024-07-14 04:28:45

If you’re not hedging, you’re hoping. Hope is not a business strategy to deal with variance risk embedded within Bitcoin
Make money less than 1% of the time vs make money more than 99% of the time?
I would much rather not wait 61 hours for my next payout. I would much rather be making money most of the time. If you’re mining for ocean then you can expect to wait, but that doesn’t stop you from hedging. Any miner can turn their dull waiting time into an opportunity!
By betting against your pool, you can make money regardless if you mine the next block or not, and thus hedge your hashrate. By betting against your own pool you ensure cash flow without further centralizing hashrate.
Miners want stable cashflow (FPPS dominance is evidence of this enough) and small pools with high variance have near certainty of gamblers ruin if they pay FPPS payouts. Hashrate hedging can be employed to enable miners to lower variance without adding too much risk to the pool operator like FPPS.
Hedging hashrate is a win-win for the mining ecosystem. Miners can direct their hashrate to smaller pools and smaller pools can be profitable despite high variance. By hedging hashrate a pool doesn’t need to risk gamblers ruin by offering stable FPPS payouts, and miners don’t need to worry about cash flow risk due to variance.
https://m.primal.net/JQCl.jpg

2024-07-13 16:02:05

If a miner directs their hashrate to a pool with 5% hashrate, they only get paid 5% of the time (assuming proportional payouts).
If a miner hedges their hashrate (by betting against their own pool) then they get paid 95% of the time.
Hedging hashrate therefore reduces cash flow variance for miners in pools with proportional payouts.
Which is preferable?
Make money 5% of the time OR make money 95% of the time?
https://m.primal.net/JPVE.jpg

2024-07-12 17:14:18

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You first need to grasp the concept of an axiom before you apply it (incorrectly)

2024-07-12 16:14:57

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Sometimes seemingly simple or obvious things are not so obvious
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_postulate
Parallel postulate seems obvious but non-euclidian geometry does not have such an axiom. Projective geometry also has no parallel postulate requirement.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axiom_of_choice
Axiom of choice in a finite world makes sense. With infinities you get the Banach-Tarski paradox
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banach%E2%80%93Tarski_paradox
When using mathematical precision to investigate ideas some faith is required that your axioms hold true, because alternative axiomatic systems exist that are also non contradictory.
Think of it like axioms as defining the boundaries of a mathematical reality, and you can have different axioms that create different realities.

2024-07-12 14:38:09

https://m.primal.net/JOGd.jpg

2024-07-12 14:34:35

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You know what you know
https://m.primal.net/IvbB.jpg

2024-07-12 11:02:31

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Axioms allow you to choose which statements are true in a formally defined system (like ZF set theory or euclidian geometry). Examples like the axiom of choice or parallel postulate require faith in their truth value for any of the statements that follow those axioms to be true.
Any system of reasoning requires some statements be true, and axioms are those bedrock statements that are taken as truths because we require no proof for them. We require no proof because we have faith they are true.

2024-07-12 03:53:01

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Axioms require faith and a proof requires axioms
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axiom

2024-06-30 12:31:37

Nature does not rush
Yet all is accomplished
Bitcoin does not rush
Yet all transactions get confirmed
🪷 ⚡️🔮
https://m.primal.net/JDMs.jpg

2024-06-30 11:53:06

Fees go up
Fees go down
Tide moves in
Tide moves out
People use Bitcoin
People don’t use Bitcoin
Things change
Yet things stay the same
https://m.primal.net/JDKu.jpg

2024-06-30 00:14:49

ecash for the people
by the people
but the people
are retarded
so they end up rugging each other
either intentionally or by accident
is this the future you want anon?
https://m.primal.net/JCiW.jpg

2024-06-29 13:27:54

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Lol good analysis
https://m.primal.net/JCFy.jpg

2024-06-29 13:24:28

Friendly reminder to anyone paying attention to the clown show
https://m.primal.net/JCFy.jpg

2024-06-29 12:37:50

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Sauce: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1772.html

2024-06-29 12:30:10

🧐🤔🧐🤔
https://m.primal.net/JCDU.png

2024-06-29 10:53:11

Here’s a little gem for the geoengieering enthusiasts out there
https://documents.theblackvault.com/documents/weather/CirrusFinal.pdf

2024-06-28 07:27:01

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Chemical warfare against us bugs hahaaha we are waking up

2024-06-26 21:53:46

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Hilarious

2024-06-26 17:18:25

CONSCIOUSNESS ENERGY GRID
https://m.primal.net/Iypv.png

2024-06-26 17:15:23

INGO SWANN
https://m.primal.net/Iypj.png

2024-06-26 17:14:03

INTENTION DIRECTS ATTENTION
https://m.primal.net/Iypg.png

2024-06-26 14:27:29

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Thank you for sharing this

2024-06-25 22:55:38

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Being a digital nomad is lonely and it can be tiring to travel all the time. It’s great for people who have an intense desire to travel and see the world. It’s not so great if you don’t like packing your bags every month or two.

2024-06-24 09:18:08

Czech people got a sense of humour
https://m.primal.net/IwDS.jpg

2024-06-24 01:58:21

Bet on which pool mines the next block on http://bitcoinprediction.market. Place bets by sending lightning payments. Receive winnings directly to your lightning address. Bet correctly to win, winners split the losers sats.

2024-06-23 23:27:30

https://m.primal.net/IvfU.png

2024-06-23 23:19:20

🪷 https://image.nostr.build/3c5f0569a091eb9e051e4f3e4f3cff561dca785f92999ccf7a8d074d42d9fa8c.jpg

2024-06-23 23:13:15

👁️ https://image.nostr.build/8db7e6db0d042f428207adab80e8795180c6a9352dfa1e8f89d5e39a7722687f.jpg

2024-06-23 21:44:51

https://m.primal.net/IvbB.jpg

2024-06-23 08:15:47

Bitcoin mining finance is broken. No other commodity industry has the unique challenges of Bitcoin: the winner take all contest. Due to this, only one pool can make money at a time. Why not everybody make money all the time? That's the Bitcoin mining landscape we want to see!

2024-06-23 07:01:23

Nostr is actually pretty fun I can’t believe I waited this long to get on haha

2024-06-23 06:56:43

Bitcoin Mining finance is broken, and we’re fixing it.
Mining is essentially a globally decentralized provably probabilistic computational race.
Miners compete to be the first to publish the next block, and whoever wins makes money. The mining contest is a winner-take-all, so the losers do not make money. All miners lose most of the time, so all miners do not make money most of the time.
Bitcoin Prediction Market has created betting markets around the mining contest, enabling people to bet on who wins and who loses.
Miners can hedge against the risk of losing the race. They can do this by betting against their own pool, or on a dominant pool like Foundry or Antpool.
Speculators can make money by predicting which pool will win, based on their hashrate.
Bitcoin Prediction Market revolutionizes mining finance by enabling miners to protect their cashflow and speculators to profit from the block discovery process.
In the past, miners could only make money by winning the contest, and speculators could only make money by betting on price. Now, everyone can profit from every single block.
Be part of this game-changing moment in Bitcoin's history! Join the revolution and learn more at https://bitcoinprediction.info/