LynAlden on Nostr: I wrote long-form articles anticipating inflation before it happened based on the ...
I wrote long-form articles anticipating inflation before it happened based on the lagged outcome from the fiscal/monetary impulse, and then called for a period of disinflation from around the top (but still with structural inflationary pressures thereafter, which I continue to monitor).
Regarding macro, I got some things right or wrong, and sometimes had to pivot as new information or analysis compiled as we all have to do, but inflation is the key thing my analysis absolutely nailed. It's part of what 10'x my audience.
And a key reason for that was because I was non-partisan and non-biased in my analysis. During the Trump administration I began calling for inflation with a lag, and then during the early Biden administration I continued to call for it as it materialized, until the conditions for it began to ease.
A rapid growth in money supply is a leading indicator for a rapid growth in aggregate prices, and that started under Trump and continued under Biden. I was Monetarist and Austrian in my analysis, not Democratic or Republican.
Walker is largely correct, because Monetarists and Austrians are largely correct. Politics aside.
The reason I say that "nothing stops this train" is because 80-90% of the deficits are election-independent. If they were mostly election-dependent, then the train would be stoppable, and I wouldn't make the memes.
On this Elon/Trump talk, Trump just said “we would have no inflation” if not for Biden. This is false.
I think it’s important to clarify that there *was* massive inflation during Trump’s administration.
From January 2017 to January 2021, the M2 money supply increased from ~$13.3 trillion to ~$19.4 trillion by January 2021.
That’s an INFLATION of ~$6.1 trillion, or ~45%.
There is a LAG between monetary inflation and general price increases throughout the economy, and price increases do not happen uniformly (look up the Cantillon Effect).
To clarify for the partisans out there: this is NOT an attempt to make excuses for Biden or to say that the monetary and fiscal policies under Biden are good; they are not good.
The point is that it is false to say “there was no inflation” under Trump.
Monetary inflation *is* inflation. 
Published at
2024-08-13 01:53:20Event JSON
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