How long will it take for bitcoin to become the dominant monetary system, AKA hyperbitcoinization?
I’ve heard some bitcoiners say that the realistic time frame might be 20 years from now or more.
Here’s why I think they’re wrong, and we see it happen before 2030:
1) Evidence points to strong probability that there will be at least 2 more bull cycles before 2030, whether it is caused by the next two halvings or something else.
2) I believe that each bull market causes the population of bitcoin adopters to increase at an exponential rate. More touch points, more word of mouth, more education, more reason to believe bitcoin is not going away. If this is correct, then I believe after only 2 more bull cycles, the majority of the world will be bitcoin adopters—game over.
3) As bitcoin in the next bull cycles becomes worth hundreds of thousands of USD, I think it becomes more and more clear to people that $1M per coin is possible, which psychologically will be a huge deal (breaking cognitive dissonance, “OMG this thing really does go up forever”)
4) It’s true that much of the world’s population is not ready to adopt bitcoin, which is a main argument for people who think the process will take decades. But… most people don’t matter in terms of hyperbitcoinization. Once we get large corporations and governments fighting over the bitcoin supply, it’s game over. Everyone else will be forced into bitcoin whether they like it or not. And do we really think we won’t see see institutions fighting over BTC before 2030, with one or two more bull cycles? The infrastructure is increasingly being built to accommodate this.
5) The debt spiral across the globe is real, and needs to be dealt with. Money will be printed, inflation will get worse, and people will increasingly need alternatives to protect themselves. I see it as quite unlikely that fiat only gets marginally worse before 2030.
6) Things being built with bitcoin continue to increase, widening its use cases and providing even more avenues for adoption.
We’ve heard “gradually then suddenly,” and I think the final “suddenly” that ends fiat will be either this coming bull cycle, or the following one at the latest. I don’t see how there could be room for a third bull cycle from here. I’m even skeptical about there being room for two… it’s possible that hyperbitcoinization occurs in just the next 1-2 years, which sounds crazy enough that it would even catch most bitcoiners off guard.
If you disagree, let me know why you think I’m wrong!
Tom Honzik /
npub1tq…hxzxp
2023-10-14 12:52:33
Author Public Key
npub1tq7z72r2g859ucwfmr4qne8ft6v2z38c2qlqhmq098q4qpvv5m0svhxzxpPublished at
2023-10-14 12:52:33Event JSON
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"content": "How long will it take for bitcoin to become the dominant monetary system, AKA hyperbitcoinization?\n\nI’ve heard some bitcoiners say that the realistic time frame might be 20 years from now or more.\n\nHere’s why I think they’re wrong, and we see it happen before 2030:\n\n1) Evidence points to strong probability that there will be at least 2 more bull cycles before 2030, whether it is caused by the next two halvings or something else.\n\n2) I believe that each bull market causes the population of bitcoin adopters to increase at an exponential rate. More touch points, more word of mouth, more education, more reason to believe bitcoin is not going away. If this is correct, then I believe after only 2 more bull cycles, the majority of the world will be bitcoin adopters—game over.\n\n3) As bitcoin in the next bull cycles becomes worth hundreds of thousands of USD, I think it becomes more and more clear to people that $1M per coin is possible, which psychologically will be a huge deal (breaking cognitive dissonance, “OMG this thing really does go up forever”)\n\n4) It’s true that much of the world’s population is not ready to adopt bitcoin, which is a main argument for people who think the process will take decades. But… most people don’t matter in terms of hyperbitcoinization. Once we get large corporations and governments fighting over the bitcoin supply, it’s game over. Everyone else will be forced into bitcoin whether they like it or not. And do we really think we won’t see see institutions fighting over BTC before 2030, with one or two more bull cycles? The infrastructure is increasingly being built to accommodate this.\n\n5) The debt spiral across the globe is real, and needs to be dealt with. Money will be printed, inflation will get worse, and people will increasingly need alternatives to protect themselves. I see it as quite unlikely that fiat only gets marginally worse before 2030.\n\n6) Things being built with bitcoin continue to increase, widening its use cases and providing even more avenues for adoption.\n\nWe’ve heard “gradually then suddenly,” and I think the final “suddenly” that ends fiat will be either this coming bull cycle, or the following one at the latest. I don’t see how there could be room for a third bull cycle from here. I’m even skeptical about there being room for two… it’s possible that hyperbitcoinization occurs in just the next 1-2 years, which sounds crazy enough that it would even catch most bitcoiners off guard.\n\nIf you disagree, let me know why you think I’m wrong!",
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