John_Smith on Nostr: 🧵small thread of Argentina goverment structure: # We have a President with more ...

🧵small thread of Argentina goverment structure:
# We have a President with more power than the US but not unlimited power.
# He can make a Budget for the year, but it has to pass Congress. If it doesn't pass, we use last year one, thanks to inflation that one is super low

# The previous budget is not enough then the President can decide directly where to give more money, thus having comple power over where money goes, but each province (Argentine equivalent to US State) decides how to expend said money.
# Milei party don't control any province

# Some provinces said that will support Milei, others not, but Milei can force them by not giving them money.
# Milei will have complete control over the central bank.
# Milei won't have control over health and education, that's a province level instution.

# Tradding some tariff are decided at Congress level, so he will need Congress for that.
# Some export tax are decided by the president so he can change those.
# Now we get to the Congress.
# We have two houses. Both are needed to pass any law. Having less than 1/3 is bad.

# With less than 1/3 of any house they can change the Constitution, change any law and overrule the President.
# 1 House has 72 with the vice president as the decider in case of tie. The other has 256 seats and each year vote for who becomes the decider (257 seat).

# in the 72 seats:
- Milei 8
- Peronist 34 (left)
- JxC 24 (nobody knows how many will help Milei there's a lot of internal fighting since the elections)
- Local Provincial Parties 8 (nobody knows what they will vote)
- Peronist controll it, but no 2/3 for Constitution reform

# in the 257 seats:
- Milei 37
- Peronist 107
- JxC 93
- Comunist party 5
- Local Provincial parties 15
- Nobody will have 128 to control it, so they will be negotiations.
- No 2/3 opossition so no problem here

# There's a gentlemans agreement that when a president gets into office the first group of laws gets approved. Nobody knows if it will stand since in the pass the "opposition" wasn't that different from the government.
# Milei might be able to pass his first group of laws

# Now on voting.
# President last 4 years and can be re-elected once
# Senate (72 seats house) last 6 years and every 2 years 1/3 is changed.
# Each province (24 in total) gets 3 senate seats
# First party gets 2 seats per election, second party gets 1

# In two years Milei will get the chance to get 16 more Senate seats at most if he wins every election in each province (8 total vote in 2 years). If he gets second he will get 1 seat.
# Nobody knows if JxC will present candidates or will join Milei's party in 2 years.

# Thus Milei cannot control the Senate next elections. Even with 100% of votes, since only 16 seats can be obtained.
# Diputados (257 seats house) last 4 years and every 2 years 1/2 is changed.
# This election is pure population base so Milei can get a lot more seats.

# He would need 70% votes to win party control over Diputados.
# That won't happen, so he will still need JxC help and support
# The Argentine voter is simple minded, if inflation falls, there's less crime and ppl can work they will vote for milei
# If not he won't get re-elected

If any one has any question just ask. I'm more than welcome to explain as much as i can