Genuine question: which is the least likely, statistically speaking when looking at historical data?
A)12 months after any date Bitcoin will be up12% or more
B) During the 12 months after any date Bitcoin looses 50% of its value in fiat terms
C) During the 12 months after any date Bitcoin looses 80% of its value in fiat terms
If B and C are less likely that A some people will be a calculated bet that they can benefit from such a loan.
It’s not significantly different to getting a mortgage to buy a property and then borrowing again against that property to buy something else.
Sometimes it blows up in your face but this is also the playbook people use to increase their wealth.
wymike /
npub1nc…vg998
2025-05-08 03:20:50
in reply to nevent1q…gsc2
Author Public Key
npub1ncrx9aecyw72ft2qpcnvdu469ak0d8ttn4prs0exvty9s3hwu9vsrvg998Published at
2025-05-08 03:20:50Event JSON
{
"id": "40285baa83758973a0d883cfdec8e91f79625dd5765766535b0909ba3ffbd6fd",
"pubkey": "9e0662f73823bca4ad400e26c6f2ba2f6cf69d6b9d42383f2662c85846eee159",
"created_at": 1746674450,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [
[
"e",
"db00df28b2fa86a61ac08cb4ad00e9f6ec8733af3a6dfc62e70e3ae2aae0f1e6",
"wss://relay.damus.io/%20wss://relay.notoshi.win/%20wss://nos.lol/%20wss://relay.siamstr.com/%20wss://relay.0xchat.com/%20wss://nfrelay.app/%20wss://relayrs.notoshi.win/%20wss://relay.nexterz.com/%20wss://fenrir-s.notoshi.win",
"root"
],
[
"p",
"61bf790b2094afb03495c9e136acf615be0fccc2cb95b5acfb5f6ccefe18b062",
"",
"mention"
],
[
"p",
"ac3f6afe17593f61810513dac9a1e544e87b9ce91b27d37b88ec58fbaa9014aa",
"",
"mention"
]
],
"content": "Genuine question: which is the least likely, statistically speaking when looking at historical data?\nA)12 months after any date Bitcoin will be up12% or more\nB) During the 12 months after any date Bitcoin looses 50% of its value in fiat terms\nC) During the 12 months after any date Bitcoin looses 80% of its value in fiat terms\n\nIf B and C are less likely that A some people will be a calculated bet that they can benefit from such a loan.\n\nIt’s not significantly different to getting a mortgage to buy a property and then borrowing again against that property to buy something else.\n\nSometimes it blows up in your face but this is also the playbook people use to increase their wealth.",
"sig": "97abc4d9e4ac1782f0903ebe9dc21c91e113e22ba0a732e19e68b09e396e2171223e552451690490e69176dd44fbbe8d9fc591a1dd17df62f280b3ff99af5fea"
}