llyn on Nostr: A lot of people, including some really well known ones, cite the figure that the U.S. ...

A lot of people, including some really well known ones, cite the figure that the U.S. has to roll $9 trillion in debt over the next 12 months, as though it’s a disaster.

Sometimes they assume the average interest rate is spread over the full Treasury debt duration evenly, including from years ago.

But in reality, most of what is maturing is short-term debt, which will have similar interest rates as it had over the past couple years, and mostly the same holders will refinance it. Only a minority is longer-term debt, meaning lower-rate bonds will mature and get refinanced by higher-rate bonds. Not a giant deal.

I’m first in line to talk about debts, deficits, and interest expense becoming a problem. I even have probably the best-known single meme about it. So, zooming out, yes it’s a major deal.

But most of the time when people cite the gross refinancing numbers over the next 12 months, it’s a flag that they’re unfamiliar with the subject, and getting caught up in alarmism.