I don't know, but I highly recommend reading the full paper. Here is what the authors say on that:
"Our forecast from the current day through 2026 is substantially more grounded than what follows. This is partially because it’s nearer. But it’s also because the effects of AI on the world really start to compound in 2027. For 2025 and 2026, our forecast is heavily informed by extrapolating straight lines on compute scaleups, algorithmic improvements, and benchmark performance. At this point in the scenario, we begin to see major effects from AI-accelerated AI-R&D on the timeline, which causes us to revise our guesses for the trendlines upwards. But these dynamics are inherently much less predictable.
Over the course of 2027, the AIs improve from being able to mostly do the job of an OpenBrain research engineer to eclipsing all humans at all tasks. This represents roughly our median guess, but we think it’s plausible that this happens up to ~5x slower or faster.
For our background research, see the timelines forecast and the takeoff forecast. These will also be summarized in expandables below."
https://ai-2027.com/research/timelines-forecast
https://ai-2027.com/research/takeoff-forecast
MK Fain 💜 / MK Fain
npub1jv…q89sc
2025-04-07 21:55:36
in reply to nevent1q…ls07
Author Public Key
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wss://relay.chakany.systemswss://ditto.pub/relaywss://gleasonator.dev/relaywss://cobrafuma.com/relayPublished at
2025-04-07 21:55:36Event JSON
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"content": "I don't know, but I highly recommend reading the full paper. Here is what the authors say on that: \n\n\"Our forecast from the current day through 2026 is substantially more grounded than what follows. This is partially because it’s nearer. But it’s also because the effects of AI on the world really start to compound in 2027. For 2025 and 2026, our forecast is heavily informed by extrapolating straight lines on compute scaleups, algorithmic improvements, and benchmark performance. At this point in the scenario, we begin to see major effects from AI-accelerated AI-R\u0026D on the timeline, which causes us to revise our guesses for the trendlines upwards. But these dynamics are inherently much less predictable.\n\nOver the course of 2027, the AIs improve from being able to mostly do the job of an OpenBrain research engineer to eclipsing all humans at all tasks. This represents roughly our median guess, but we think it’s plausible that this happens up to ~5x slower or faster.\n\nFor our background research, see the timelines forecast and the takeoff forecast. These will also be summarized in expandables below.\"\nhttps://ai-2027.com/research/timelines-forecast\nhttps://ai-2027.com/research/takeoff-forecast",
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