Daniel Lakeland on Nostr: I haven't been following daily polls or anything like that, but if you were to ask me ...

I haven't been following daily polls or anything like that, but if you were to ask me Trump vs Biden, I'd say Biden vote fraction of the two party vote approximately ~ Normal(50,3) (ie. 50% +- 3 percentage points standard deviation)

If you look at highly sophisticated The Economist poll modeling... It's basically ~Normal(50,3) so polls offer essentially zero information above and beyond "hey they're about equal" which we knew before looking at any information at all. #statistics #voting #poll