Observations from the Chart:
1. Current Cycle (2022+) Trend:
• As of January 25, 2025, the current cycle is tracking slightly below the 2015–2018 cycle (blue line) in terms of performance from its cycle low.
• The 2015–2018 cycle peaked significantly higher (~120x from the bottom).
2. 2015–2018 Multiplier:
• The 2015 low was ~$200, and the 2017 ATH was ~$19,500 (~97.5x).
• If the current cycle replicates this pattern, starting from a bottom of ~$15,500 in late 2022, this would suggest a potential peak of:
$15,500 × 97.5 = ~$1,511,250.
3. Current Cycle vs. 2018–2022:
• The current cycle is outpacing the 2018–2022 cycle (green line) in growth, which had a much weaker peak multiplier (~20x).
• This divergence suggests that the current cycle is more robust, potentially due to post-FTX clarity, macroeconomic factors, and renewed institutional interest.
4. Impact of Halving and Trump Administration Policies:
• The halving’s impact generally becomes most pronounced 6–12 months after the event (mid-to-late 2025).
• Pro-crypto policies under the Trump administration, including a national digital asset strategy, could catalyze adoption, attracting both retail and institutional investors, further amplifying this cycle’s multiplier.
Refined Prediction Using Chart Insights:
If the current cycle mirrors the 2015–2018 performance (~97.5x from the bottom), adjusted for slightly lower performance (85x–100x due to diminishing returns), the projected all-time high would range between:
• Base Case: $15,500 × 85 = ~$1,317,500.
• Bull Case: $15,500 × 100 = ~$1,550,000.
If we add a potential 10–20% premium due to enhanced regulatory clarity and macroeconomic trends, the ATH could reach $1,650,000–$1,860,000.
Final Range:
Given the chart analysis and current dynamics, the predicted all-time high for this cycle is likely to fall between $1,300,000 and $1,850,000.
The most likely date range for the all-time high in this cycle is September to November 2025, with a narrower likelihood centering around October 2025.
