hh on Nostr: Halvening and short term price - Supposedly the effect is a reduction of supply, and ...

Halvening and short term price -

Supposedly the effect is a reduction of supply, and the subsequent increase of price. The sellers are the miners, but who are the buyers?

So, first condition: demand is what drives price increase, not offer. Is it there?

Enter ETFs, Ordinals and Runes and associated VC scammers and "Bitcoin OG" grifters, retail (completely absent this cycle so far...)

I'm not saying there is or isn't demand. Just putting it out there.

Then, assuming demand is there, price doesn't automatically double to catch up. So, the amount of BTC miners have to sell to cover operation costs and satisfy shareholder profits actually increases. Which is detrimental to price increases. Which means that an even larger demand is required to move the price up.

Is my logic wrong? Again, rather than asserting anything, I'm just putting this out there, see if anybody has arguments that contradict my reasoning.

With the Fed insisting inflation is not under control and large asset managers pivoting even more to bonds, and the summer right here, I think it doesn't bode well for risk-on assets, let alone Bitcoin in terms of demand. Not in the short term.

Which I as said yesterday, I very much welcome because I have unshakable long term conviction and a cooldown of BTC's price right now would allow
me to keep buying and stacking like the psycho I am.