Over a long enough time frame, #Bitcoin is purely supply/demand driven, and thereby is subject to uncertainty (adoption; need from miners and other market participants…).
Risk, however, is NOT uncertainty. The risk comes in the form of the technology implementation.
What is the probability that a bug is encountered that causes the whole network to fail? What is the probability that a bad actor plunders the ledger and double spends coins? What is the probability that the main chain is forked and people adopt a less valuable chain (i.e. BlackRock’s ETF filing)?
Risk is very low, imo.
Uncertainty? By heuristics, over a long enough time frame you could expect an increased demand of Bitcoin, and a reduced supply.
Also, measuring a system from within another system that is constantly changing is not easy. If demand/supply heuristics suggest that you’re in a better position to buy bitcoin today compared to 5 years from now, why do you care about the dollar price?
Just expect that your money, first, won’t be diluted by an arbitraty amount, and that you have something that others want/need before them.
Only a BIG (uncertain) event could happen that could change the supply/demand dynamics completely and heuristics be wrong.
But what is certain is that the world is going nuts. Being a social parasite is the dream job. Corruption is allowed and not punished. Public deficits are constantly growing. Debt is repaid with more debt.
So at least, everything constant, no uncertainty on the horizon, Bitcoin will just appreciate in any fiat terms.. the thing is, these are not constant. So, how fast will it do?
Take your time, and decide accordingly.
#nostr
#nostrplebs
#plebchain
eldoradoBTC / Al₿erto Troya
npub132…cspw0
2023-08-15 17:30:57
Author Public Key
npub1322q93cnsnws5wra8hh5swu039eklhlzd0pgyan8rqs2l9pveflqfcspw0Published at
2023-08-15 17:30:57Event JSON
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"created_at": 1692120657,
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"content": "Over a long enough time frame, #Bitcoin is purely supply/demand driven, and thereby is subject to uncertainty (adoption; need from miners and other market participants…).\n\nRisk, however, is NOT uncertainty. The risk comes in the form of the technology implementation. \n\nWhat is the probability that a bug is encountered that causes the whole network to fail? What is the probability that a bad actor plunders the ledger and double spends coins? What is the probability that the main chain is forked and people adopt a less valuable chain (i.e. BlackRock’s ETF filing)?\n\nRisk is very low, imo.\n\nUncertainty? By heuristics, over a long enough time frame you could expect an increased demand of Bitcoin, and a reduced supply.\n\nAlso, measuring a system from within another system that is constantly changing is not easy. If demand/supply heuristics suggest that you’re in a better position to buy bitcoin today compared to 5 years from now, why do you care about the dollar price? \n\nJust expect that your money, first, won’t be diluted by an arbitraty amount, and that you have something that others want/need before them.\n\nOnly a BIG (uncertain) event could happen that could change the supply/demand dynamics completely and heuristics be wrong.\n\nBut what is certain is that the world is going nuts. Being a social parasite is the dream job. Corruption is allowed and not punished. Public deficits are constantly growing. Debt is repaid with more debt.\n\nSo at least, everything constant, no uncertainty on the horizon, Bitcoin will just appreciate in any fiat terms.. the thing is, these are not constant. So, how fast will it do?\n\nTake your time, and decide accordingly.\n\n#nostr\n#nostrplebs\n#plebchain",
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