📅 Original date posted:2015-08-04
📝 Original message:Given there is no money at stake in these prediction games, it is no surprise that the results are implausible.
On August 4, 2015 10:22:19 AM EDT, Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
>On 4 August 2015 at 01:22, Gavin Andresen via bitcoin-dev <
>bitcoin-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
>
>> And the preliminary results of using a prediction market to try to
>wrestle
>> with the tough tradeoffs looks roughly correct to me, too:
>> https://blocksizedebate.com/
>>
>
>The scicast prediction market is shutdown atm (since early July?) so
>those
>numbers aren't live. But...
>
>Network hash rate
>3,255.17 PH/s (same block size)
>5,032.64 PH/s (block size increase)
>
>4,969.68 PH/s (no replace-by-fee)
>3,132.09 PH/s (replace-by-fee)
>
>Those numbers seem completely implausible: that's ~2.9-3.6 doublings of
>the
>current hashrate (< 400PH/s) in 17 months, when it's taken 12 months
>for
>the last doubling, and there's a block reward reduction due in that
>period
>too. (That might've been a reasonable prediction sometime in the past
>year,
>when doublings were slowing from once every ~45 days to once a year; it
>just doesn't seem a supportable prediction now)
>
>That the PH/s rate is higher with bigger blocks is surprising, but
>given
>that site also predicts USD/BTC will be $280 with no change but $555
>with
>bigger blocks, so I assume that difference is mostly due to price.
>Also,
>12.5btc at $555 each is about 23 btc at $300 each, so if that price
>increase is realistic, it would compensate for almost all of the block
>reward reduction.
>
>Daily transaction volume
>168,438.22 tx/day (same block size)
>193,773.08 tx/day (block size increase)
>
>192,603.80 tx/day (no replace-by-fee)
>168,406.73 tx/day (replace-by-fee)
>
>That's only a 15% increase in transaction volume due to the block size
>increase; I would have expected more? 168k-194k tx/day is also only a
>30%-50% increase in transaction volume from 130k tx/day currently. If
>that's really the case, then a 1.5MB-2MB max block size would probably
>be
>enough for the next two years...
>
>(Predicting that the node count will drop from ~5000 to ~1200 due to
>increasing block sizes seems quite an indictment as far as
>centralisation
>risks go; but given I'm not that convinced by the other predictions,
>I'm
>not sure I want to give that much weight to that one either)
>
>Cheers,
>aj
>
>--
>Anthony Towns <aj at erisian.com.au>
>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>_______________________________________________
>bitcoin-dev mailing list
>bitcoin-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org
>https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
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Owen [ARCHIVE] /
npub12n…za0y4
2023-06-07 17:32:41
in reply to nevent1q…zwyt
Author Public Key
npub12ne8urca5v4quvq4cecs6ejvmjelh5wgjmm4cl8xuc23d9mhqekquza0y4Published at
2023-06-07 17:32:41Event JSON
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"content": "📅 Original date posted:2015-08-04\n📝 Original message:Given there is no money at stake in these prediction games, it is no surprise that the results are implausible.\n\nOn August 4, 2015 10:22:19 AM EDT, Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev \u003cbitcoin-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org\u003e wrote:\n\u003eOn 4 August 2015 at 01:22, Gavin Andresen via bitcoin-dev \u003c\n\u003ebitcoin-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org\u003e wrote:\n\u003e\n\u003e\u003e And the preliminary results of using a prediction market to try to\n\u003ewrestle\n\u003e\u003e with the tough tradeoffs looks roughly correct to me, too:\n\u003e\u003e https://blocksizedebate.com/\n\u003e\u003e\n\u003e\n\u003eThe scicast prediction market is shutdown atm (since early July?) so\n\u003ethose\n\u003enumbers aren't live. But...\n\u003e\n\u003eNetwork hash rate\n\u003e3,255.17 PH/s (same block size)\n\u003e5,032.64 PH/s (block size increase)\n\u003e\n\u003e4,969.68 PH/s (no replace-by-fee)\n\u003e3,132.09 PH/s (replace-by-fee)\n\u003e\n\u003eThose numbers seem completely implausible: that's ~2.9-3.6 doublings of\n\u003ethe\n\u003ecurrent hashrate (\u003c 400PH/s) in 17 months, when it's taken 12 months\n\u003efor\n\u003ethe last doubling, and there's a block reward reduction due in that\n\u003eperiod\n\u003etoo. (That might've been a reasonable prediction sometime in the past\n\u003eyear,\n\u003ewhen doublings were slowing from once every ~45 days to once a year; it\n\u003ejust doesn't seem a supportable prediction now)\n\u003e\n\u003eThat the PH/s rate is higher with bigger blocks is surprising, but\n\u003egiven\n\u003ethat site also predicts USD/BTC will be $280 with no change but $555\n\u003ewith\n\u003ebigger blocks, so I assume that difference is mostly due to price.\n\u003eAlso,\n\u003e12.5btc at $555 each is about 23 btc at $300 each, so if that price\n\u003eincrease is realistic, it would compensate for almost all of the block\n\u003ereward reduction.\n\u003e\n\u003eDaily transaction volume\n\u003e168,438.22 tx/day (same block size)\n\u003e193,773.08 tx/day (block size increase)\n\u003e\n\u003e192,603.80 tx/day (no replace-by-fee)\n\u003e168,406.73 tx/day (replace-by-fee)\n\u003e\n\u003eThat's only a 15% increase in transaction volume due to the block size\n\u003eincrease; I would have expected more? 168k-194k tx/day is also only a\n\u003e30%-50% increase in transaction volume from 130k tx/day currently. If\n\u003ethat's really the case, then a 1.5MB-2MB max block size would probably\n\u003ebe\n\u003eenough for the next two years...\n\u003e\n\u003e(Predicting that the node count will drop from ~5000 to ~1200 due to\n\u003eincreasing block sizes seems quite an indictment as far as\n\u003ecentralisation\n\u003erisks go; but given I'm not that convinced by the other predictions,\n\u003eI'm\n\u003enot sure I want to give that much weight to that one either)\n\u003e\n\u003eCheers,\n\u003eaj\n\u003e\n\u003e-- \n\u003eAnthony Towns \u003caj at erisian.com.au\u003e\n\u003e\n\u003e\n\u003e------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\u003e\n\u003e_______________________________________________\n\u003ebitcoin-dev mailing list\n\u003ebitcoin-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org\n\u003ehttps://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev\n-------------- next part --------------\nAn HTML attachment was scrubbed...\nURL: \u003chttp://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/attachments/20150804/a4870189/attachment-0001.html\u003e",
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