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2025-04-29 19:11:12
in reply to

travkohn on Nostr: Triffin's Dilemma: The reserve currency country must run persistent current account ...

Triffin's Dilemma:
The reserve currency country must run persistent current account deficits in order to provide the rest of the world with reserves denominated in its currency.

In doing so, it becomes more indebted to foreigners until the risk-free assets ceases to be risk-free. The elites understand this issue perfectly.
But the reason the system did well for so long is because US debt levels were manageable and structural advantages the US had that helped it immensely including a deep and liquid bonded stock market, large population, and a large percent of global trade.
But they also understand that Triffin's Dilemma is the final nail in the coffin and every past reserve asset country has only lasted 80 years on average.

The USA needs to decide whether to not print dollars and import goods which halt global trade causing defaults for third world countries with debt denominated in dollars or..
It has to decide to run current account deficits to keep the global economy running at the expense of burying itself in debt and de-industrializing the heartland resulting in the US eventually having to print their way out.
Which will kill the US dollar as a global reserve currency.
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