An Exercise in Bayesian Probability
A businessman is celebrating his recent acquittal in a high-profile fraud trial on a luxury yacht when it sinks in mysterious circumstances off the coast of Sicily. The businessman is one of six people on board missing, presumed dead. Just last week, the businessman's co-defendant in the aforementioned fraud trial died in a mysterious road accident while out running in Cambridgeshire. Using Bayesian methods, calculate the probability…
http://telescoper.blog/2024/08/20/an-exercise-in-bayesian-probability/
Peter Coles /
npub1ya…2qqvm
2024-08-20 09:05:02
Author Public Key
npub1yarsn5lpvq3t87rmrlapf0rmutv7wlvuutr2v0fcsl23mur8nhrqh2qqvmPublished at
2024-08-20 09:05:02Event JSON
{
"id": "e5b641e8178f17562d379f763af2a6a8c04f76b4a57e426261f4dd1e2d5dd9b7",
"pubkey": "274709d3e16022b3f87b1ffa14bc7be2d9e77d9ce2c6a63d3887d51df0679dc6",
"created_at": 1724144702,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [
[
"proxy",
"https://mastodon.social/users/telescoper/statuses/112993547219792086",
"activitypub"
]
],
"content": "An Exercise in Bayesian Probability\n\nA businessman is celebrating his recent acquittal in a high-profile fraud trial on a luxury yacht when it sinks in mysterious circumstances off the coast of Sicily. The businessman is one of six people on board missing, presumed dead. Just last week, the businessman's co-defendant in the aforementioned fraud trial died in a mysterious road accident while out running in Cambridgeshire. Using Bayesian methods, calculate the probability…\n\nhttp://telescoper.blog/2024/08/20/an-exercise-in-bayesian-probability/",
"sig": "c69ab31cd94b2c957a70b94a7091e5417114b450940002dc451a10146c57997af7a41409a8c23152d5707017cd1cd2d49978acba1622f53c6db4364f3a761bcb"
}