Halvings impact bitcoin price to the upside, the mechanism is decreased new supply availability.
The impact is reducing supply in a nonreducing* demand market. This supply demand imbalance naturally cause prices to bid higher, historicly induces fomo causing overshoot followed by overcorrection then fair value equilibrium over about four years.
Halvings can't be easily frontrun because the cost of holding price above equilibrium is overly beneficial to miners who can sell the market back down using pre-halving supply schedule.
*external media and political financial factors do impact demand and are regularly used to influence bitcoin price in the short term. These events may be considered by long term holders as opportunities to stack cheap sats.
I believe we're now at equilibrium, where this is usually the time of greatest short term price uncertainty as news events may swing either way before the supply reducing mechanism takes center stage once again.
freeonlineuser
npub1my…pmpph
2023-08-29 13:01:43
Author Public Key
npub1myh7r64lemswzc055slpg2kcy33wj04qgphely2sx08w5dkqjp8scpmpphPublished at
2023-08-29 13:01:43Event JSON
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"pubkey": "d92fe1eabfcee0e161f4a43e142ad82462e93ea0406f9f915033ceea36c0904f",
"created_at": 1693314103,
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"tags": [],
"content": "Halvings impact bitcoin price to the upside, the mechanism is decreased new supply availability.\n\nThe impact is reducing supply in a nonreducing* demand market. This supply demand imbalance naturally cause prices to bid higher, historicly induces fomo causing overshoot followed by overcorrection then fair value equilibrium over about four years.\n\nHalvings can't be easily frontrun because the cost of holding price above equilibrium is overly beneficial to miners who can sell the market back down using pre-halving supply schedule. \n\n*external media and political financial factors do impact demand and are regularly used to influence bitcoin price in the short term. These events may be considered by long term holders as opportunities to stack cheap sats.\n\nI believe we're now at equilibrium, where this is usually the time of greatest short term price uncertainty as news events may swing either way before the supply reducing mechanism takes center stage once again.",
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}