📅 Original date posted:2022-10-30
📝 Original message:On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 11:02:43AM +1000, Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev wrote:
> > Some napkin math: there are about 250,000 transactions a day; if
> > we round that up to 100 million a year and assume we only want one
> > transaction per year to fail to initially propagate on a network where
> > 30% of nodes have adopted a more permissive policy, lightweight clients
> > will need to connect to over 50 randomly selected nodes.[1]
> A target failure probability of 1-in-1e8 means:
Oh, based on the "receive version message" log entries of a node that
only does outbound connections, over the last ~3 weeks I see about 3000
outbound connections (mostly feelers/block-relay-only ones), of which
a bunch identify as non-taproot supporting:
10 /Satoshi:0.16.0/:
13 /Satoshi:0.17.0/:
13 /Satoshi:0.17.0.1/:
28 /Satoshi:0.16.3/:
29 /Satoshi:0.19.0.1/:
36 /Satoshi:0.18.1/:
37 /Satoshi:0.19.1/:
39 /Satoshi:0.17.1/:
50 /Satoshi:0.20.0/:
94 /Satoshi:0.21.0/:
95 /Satoshi:0.18.0/:
244 /Satoshi:0.20.1/:
Those add up to 688+ of 3065 total; if that's representative, it
presumably means a random node connecting to 8 random listening peers has
a 6.44-in-1-million chance of only connecting to peers that don't support
taproot, ie failing your suggested threshold by a factor of about 644.
Cheers,
aj
Anthony Towns [ARCHIVE] /
npub17r…x9l2h
2023-06-07 23:16:02
in reply to nevent1q…ww8g
Author Public Key
npub17rld56k4365lfphyd8u8kwuejey5xcazdxptserx03wc4jc9g24stx9l2hSeen on
wss://relay.nostr.bandPublished at
2023-06-07 23:16:02Event JSON
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"content": "📅 Original date posted:2022-10-30\n📝 Original message:On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 11:02:43AM +1000, Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev wrote:\n\u003e \u003e Some napkin math: there are about 250,000 transactions a day; if\n\u003e \u003e we round that up to 100 million a year and assume we only want one\n\u003e \u003e transaction per year to fail to initially propagate on a network where\n\u003e \u003e 30% of nodes have adopted a more permissive policy, lightweight clients\n\u003e \u003e will need to connect to over 50 randomly selected nodes.[1] \n\u003e A target failure probability of 1-in-1e8 means:\n\nOh, based on the \"receive version message\" log entries of a node that\nonly does outbound connections, over the last ~3 weeks I see about 3000\noutbound connections (mostly feelers/block-relay-only ones), of which\na bunch identify as non-taproot supporting:\n\n 10 /Satoshi:0.16.0/:\n 13 /Satoshi:0.17.0/:\n 13 /Satoshi:0.17.0.1/:\n 28 /Satoshi:0.16.3/:\n 29 /Satoshi:0.19.0.1/:\n 36 /Satoshi:0.18.1/:\n 37 /Satoshi:0.19.1/:\n 39 /Satoshi:0.17.1/:\n 50 /Satoshi:0.20.0/:\n 94 /Satoshi:0.21.0/:\n 95 /Satoshi:0.18.0/:\n 244 /Satoshi:0.20.1/:\n\nThose add up to 688+ of 3065 total; if that's representative, it\npresumably means a random node connecting to 8 random listening peers has\na 6.44-in-1-million chance of only connecting to peers that don't support\ntaproot, ie failing your suggested threshold by a factor of about 644.\n\nCheers,\naj",
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