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2024-11-17 12:12:53

Ihar Filipau on Nostr: kravietz 🦇 IMO. You have to be careful here. I often say "russians won't rebel" ...



IMO. You have to be careful here. I often say "russians won't rebel" and there is reason for this.

(1) As with any conformist society, it's impossible to gauge when/how rebellion might happen. Unknowable, thus non-analytical quantity.

(2) The threat of rebellion ("smuta") is used by kremlin in its hybrid campaign against West, threatening with WW3 since "you won't know who'd get control over nukes".

Based on these points, saying "russians won't rebel" is valid (counter)narrative.
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npub18d50cvts65ujw9dfqljflj04hguwhteuky3rmay999nlnzt0tvdq7y30dq