I think most people sense that Bitcoin will experience a run-up before the end of summer, but I doubt anyone truly knows what will happen afterward. The game has changed: states are preparing to purchase and hold Bitcoin, publicly traded companies and banks are beginning to stack. Still, it's unclear whether this will disrupt the traditional four-year cycle pattern. The future remains uncertain.
My hope for a reprieve in price is based on an observation made by jack mallers (nprofile…5cfd) during a podcast with his parents (bring them back!). He pointed out that the mining reward—and thus the inflation rate—is still too high for Bitcoin to stabilize at a "unit of account" level.
Another important point is that the Lightning Network is not yet scalable enough, and ecash is not yet self-custodial enough, to prevent Bitcoin from being captured by a system of fractional-reserve "free banking." Solutions to these problems are imminent, but they may still be two or three years away.
In either case, it would be in our self-interest for the price to crash dramatically sometime this fall or winter to prevent government and Wall Street from front-running the infrastructure. The front-run I’m concerned about isn’t ownership of Bitcoin itself, but domination of the infrastructure, as a result of the necessary centralization at higher protocol layers.
Brunswick
npub1c8…q6lkc
2025-04-27 14:39:03
Author Public Key
npub1c856kwjk524kef97hazw5e9jlkjq4333r6yxh2rtgefpd894ddpsmq6lkcPublished at
2025-04-27 14:39:03Event JSON
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"content": "I think most people sense that Bitcoin will experience a run-up before the end of summer, but I doubt anyone truly knows what will happen afterward. The game has changed: states are preparing to purchase and hold Bitcoin, publicly traded companies and banks are beginning to stack. Still, it's unclear whether this will disrupt the traditional four-year cycle pattern. The future remains uncertain.\n\nMy hope for a reprieve in price is based on an observation made by nostr:nprofile1qqsvf646uxlreajhhsv9tms9u6w7nuzeedaqty38z69cpwyhv89ufcqpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujucm4wfex2mn59en8j6gpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgqg5waehxw309aex2mrp0yhxgctdw4eju6t0t25cfd during a podcast with his parents (bring them back!). He pointed out that the mining reward—and thus the inflation rate—is still too high for Bitcoin to stabilize at a \"unit of account\" level.\n\nAnother important point is that the Lightning Network is not yet scalable enough, and ecash is not yet self-custodial enough, to prevent Bitcoin from being captured by a system of fractional-reserve \"free banking.\" Solutions to these problems are imminent, but they may still be two or three years away.\n\nIn either case, it would be in our self-interest for the price to crash dramatically sometime this fall or winter to prevent government and Wall Street from front-running the infrastructure. The front-run I’m concerned about isn’t ownership of Bitcoin itself, but domination of the infrastructure, as a result of the necessary centralization at higher protocol layers.",
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