Recession Warning Via States' Economies Was a False Alarm
==========
The article discusses the false alarm of a recession warning based on the economies of US states. The warning was based on an indicator that aggregated trends in the 50 US state economies and suggested a high risk of recession in early 2024. However, the warning turned out to be noise, as there was minimal confirmation in other business-cycle indexes. Estimating recession risk in real-time is challenging due to the complexity of the economy and the numerous interactions and feedback loops. The article emphasizes the importance of using a diversified set of indicators and robust ensemble modeling to estimate recession risk accurately. The Composite Recession Probability Index (CRPI) currently indicates a low probability of a recession in the US. The article concludes by cautioning against relying on a single indicator for recession forecasting.
https://uk.investing.com/analysis/recession-warning-via-states-economies-was-a-false-alarm-200606283
Investing.com UK /
npub1em…ucllf
2024-04-30 19:10:11
Author Public Key
npub1em7dyua4kecyhe868eq29cthns4hkhssjykccv3j0hg9656nzm8s2ucllfPublished at
2024-04-30 19:10:11Event JSON
{
"id": "c0bcb8e0cbc7ae05038f24e16df906a2c6c2d0e12e1c2a234b26c76a8c8105fb",
"pubkey": "cefcd273b5b6704be4fa3e40a2e1779c2b7b5e10912d8c32327dd05d535316cf",
"created_at": 1714504211,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [],
"content": "Recession Warning Via States' Economies Was a False Alarm\n==========\n\nThe article discusses the false alarm of a recession warning based on the economies of US states. The warning was based on an indicator that aggregated trends in the 50 US state economies and suggested a high risk of recession in early 2024. However, the warning turned out to be noise, as there was minimal confirmation in other business-cycle indexes. Estimating recession risk in real-time is challenging due to the complexity of the economy and the numerous interactions and feedback loops. The article emphasizes the importance of using a diversified set of indicators and robust ensemble modeling to estimate recession risk accurately. The Composite Recession Probability Index (CRPI) currently indicates a low probability of a recession in the US. The article concludes by cautioning against relying on a single indicator for recession forecasting.\n\n\n\nhttps://uk.investing.com/analysis/recession-warning-via-states-economies-was-a-false-alarm-200606283",
"sig": "b68e40b29665dc9400cccccb0049f17d001dd0cd9924cde5de4cf57cabcd23da4e358b09bc309a40951e725b3a140cc38346eb9d89b49d3cf398508e5e16f657"
}