Martin Vrijland on Nostr: Coming #Bitcoin price explosion explained. You may ask: Why didn't the price go up ...

Coming #Bitcoin price explosion explained.
You may ask: Why didn't the price go up very fast since the ETF approvals on January 11th?

Grayscale (GBTC) was an investment fund that started buying Bitcoin way before the ETF's were approved. Companies and people could buy shares in the Grayscale fund for years, but they couldn't sell them.

On January 11th 2024 Grayscale became an ETF. Before that date shareholders couldn't sell the Grayscale shares. Since Grayscale was approved as one of the 10 ETF's it all of a sudden became possible to sell the Grayscale shares. Grayscale would then have to sell the underlying asset (Bitcoin).

There were several Bitcoin exchanges (like Genesis and others) that held Grayscale shares. Those exchanges went bankrupt last year. The court decided that the currators of those bankrupt exchanges would need to sell Grayscale shares to compensate the customers of those (bankrupt) exchanges.

That is what has been going on for the past several weeks. Once all the customers of those (bankrupt) exchanges (that held Grayscale shares) have been payed back, the Bitcoin selling of Grayscale (GBTC) stops.

For every sold Grayscale share Grayscale needs to sell (dump) Bitcoin on the market. This has been suppressing the Bitcoin price until now.

If the Grayscale (forced) selling stops, there is nobody to buy from anymore, apart from the Bitcoin miners. The Over The Counter (OTC) desks are as good as empty (don't have any Bitcoin left)and the Bitcoin miners only produce 900 Bitcoins a day (450 after the halving in April); while the demand is thousands a day (only as a result of the ETF buying, like the Blackrok ETF).

In the past months most of the buying of Bitcoin by the 10 new Bitcoin ETF's came from Grayscale (forced) selling and from the OTC desks. This has almost dried up now.

The customers of the bankrupt crypto (Bitcoin) exchanges have almost already been payed back. It's a matter of days. Looking at the ETF graph today it seems like the Grayscale selling has almost stopped.

I think this week is the final week of Grayscale outflow (forced selling to pay back the clients of the bankrupt exchanges). Once the Grayscale selling stops, there will be a supply shock and Bitcoin price will spike.

On top of that the banks are running out of cash. A black swan event would be a huge cataliser for the Bitcoin price to spike and the dollar to hyperinflate.