Lately I've been thinking about high time preference. For those who have heard the term and are unfamiliar with it, the layman's definition is short-term and long-term thinking. Many bitcoiners like to think they have a low time preference. In other words, they are patient. In practice, and even on Stacker.news, I've noticed more time preference signals from bitcoiners than we'd like to admit. Here are some examples.Price / fiat exchange rate.
Government adoption or defeat
Mass adoption.
All of them are essentially related to high time preference. I'll talk about each of them. I'm curious what you all think, though.
Bitcoin to fiat exchange rate
This is probably the most obvious example of high time preference in bitcoins. New bitcoiners tend to fall into the trap of price obsession. When the price of bitcoin reaches unprecedented highs, everyone is interested and asks me about bitcoin. When the price falls and you can stack more satellites, nobody cares. Sure, the price still matters, but the idea that you're going to get rich trading bitcoins matters a lot. To quote Sayfedin, it's a "fiat mind." Bitcoin is a great savings vehicle, but right now it is still in its infancy compared to gold and even fiat. Adjust your time preference, bitcoiners.
Acceptance or defeat of government.
All empires fall. I have noticed one paradox. Most fiat people can't imagine a world in which the U.S. government doesn't control the world. Even a brief glance at history points to the folly of such thinking. In the early 1980s, most Americans could not imagine the fall of the USSR. In 1989, it was over. Bitcoiners, on the other hand, often dream feverishly that the U.S. and fiat world will collapse in the next year or two. It may or may not happen in the next 25 to 100 years. There are even people who think we should hasten the fall of these empires with violence. Again, this is very important and stupid.
Then you have people who are obsessed with politics and making politicians "support" bitcoin. If bitcoin requires the support of politicians, we are doomed. IMO bitcoin will eventually make the existing political system obsolete. As the bitcoin network grows, political support will happen organically. Focus on helping your fellow plebeians. Ignore these clowns who are trying to control us.
Mass Acceptance.
I hear people say over and over again how bitcoin has been around for so long and why hasn't it been accepted by the masses? This is a huge example of high time preference. The reality is that those who could have easily adopted bitcoin do not currently see the need. For those who need it most, adoption is not yet a simple and easy matter. We'll get there, but we're not there yet. It will take time. Those of us who live in relatively free and prosperous countries should use bitcoin as much as possible, helping to test tools and supporting the development of better tools.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is a tool of civilization. It is a revolutionary idea and technology. Of course, I want to see a massive proliferation of bitcoins in my lifetime. I want the state of war to end. I want open-source money to spread around the world. These things will happen. If they don't happen in the next 5 years, that doesn't mean bitcoin has failed. Because people who value freedom and sovereignty focus on becoming free. Freedom and sovereignty require responsibility, and if you are not working on becoming free and sovereign, you will not be ready when the current system collapses. We need to adjust our temporal preferences. We need to focus on long-term growth and bitcoin health for the sake of humanity.
S_G