I’ve listened to the entirety of his Saife and his Onramp podcasts. He’s wrong.
His current approach is fitting bitcoin into the existing system. “Wouldn’t it be nice if…” and the like.
He concedes that bitcoin is appreciating 50%+ annually and then totally abandons the implications of that fact. The existing system doesn’t exist as it does today with Bitcoin appreciating 50% annually.
It’s not that credit / yield “can’t work” but when the underlying asset backing the loan is appreciating 50% annually in fiat terms, banks won’t be able to find projects that outperform Bitcoin to return 5% denominated in bitcoin. Even if this Bitcoin yield product is offered through JPM or Goldman, they are susceptible to blowing up because of the sheer insane remaining upside to bitcoin until hyperbitcoinization occurs and Bitcoin is growing as sound money should - 10-15% annually. Once you have removed some of the volatility and outsized upside then you could reasonably expect to deliver a yield consistent with the underlying asset.
There is a disconnect in him trying to force bitcoin into the existing credit-based fiat system. There’s a number of legitimate reasons he might take this approach. But he is entirely wrong about what he is shilling publicly right now.
His go to analogy is this 22 year old that wants to take out a loan to start a business or by a car…and he condescendingly asks “Will that not happen with bitcoin?” No, Michael, it won’t…because that is a misallocation of capital under a bitcoin standard.
8r0ck3feller / 8R0ck3feller
npub1h4…a2jcm
2024-10-21 15:39:51
in reply to nevent1q…30w2
Author Public Key
npub1h4lrzqnrne72xj00yl3zzr0k6qn93cqe5g4vvkfechs6mn89mwyqfa2jcmPublished at
2024-10-21 15:39:51Event JSON
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"content": "I’ve listened to the entirety of his Saife and his Onramp podcasts. He’s wrong.\n\nHis current approach is fitting bitcoin into the existing system. “Wouldn’t it be nice if…” and the like.\n\nHe concedes that bitcoin is appreciating 50%+ annually and then totally abandons the implications of that fact. The existing system doesn’t exist as it does today with Bitcoin appreciating 50% annually. \n\nIt’s not that credit / yield “can’t work” but when the underlying asset backing the loan is appreciating 50% annually in fiat terms, banks won’t be able to find projects that outperform Bitcoin to return 5% denominated in bitcoin. Even if this Bitcoin yield product is offered through JPM or Goldman, they are susceptible to blowing up because of the sheer insane remaining upside to bitcoin until hyperbitcoinization occurs and Bitcoin is growing as sound money should - 10-15% annually. Once you have removed some of the volatility and outsized upside then you could reasonably expect to deliver a yield consistent with the underlying asset.\n\nThere is a disconnect in him trying to force bitcoin into the existing credit-based fiat system. There’s a number of legitimate reasons he might take this approach. But he is entirely wrong about what he is shilling publicly right now.\n\nHis go to analogy is this 22 year old that wants to take out a loan to start a business or by a car…and he condescendingly asks “Will that not happen with bitcoin?” No, Michael, it won’t…because that is a misallocation of capital under a bitcoin standard.",
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