Fascinating strategic developments regarding the ability to project power.
Ukraine’s Assault Scrambles Kremlin Strategy
BY DANIEL MICHAELS AND JANE LYTVYNENKO
The Wall Street Journal
Jun 03, 2025
Surprise drone strike on warplanes hurts ability to attack U.S., other distant rivals
KYIV, Ukraine—Ukraine’s unprecedented drone strikes on Russian air force bases weaken Moscow’s ability to wage war on its smaller neighbor and undermine its capacity to threaten more-distant rivals such as the U.S.—a shift with potentially far-reaching geostrategic implications.
A sizable portion of the fleet Moscow uses to launch guidedmissile attacks on Ukraine—and would rely on to strike adversaries in the event of a nuclear war—was damaged or destroyed in the attacks Sunday.
The strikes cast a cloud over peace talks in Istanbul on Monday, where the two sides met for just more than an hour with little progress toward an agreement. Ukrainian officials said the two sides agreed on further exchanges of prisoners of war. Both sides sent low-level delegations, reflecting slim hopes of any breakthrough.
Russia no longer produces the decades-old Tupolev planes that were targeted in the attacks, meaning it has lost a cornerstone of its ability to project military power beyond its borders. Newer Russian planes are more modern and agile but lack vital characteristics of the destroyed bombers, most significantly their range and the quantity of munitions they can carry. Ukraine and open-source intelligence analysts said the attack also destroyed a rare Antonov plane Russia uses for airborne command-and-con
trol, another capability vital to modern warfare.
Of more than 100 Tupolev bombers that Russia is known to have, Ukraine said it had damaged or destroyed more than 40. Open-source intelligence analysts counted at least 14 damaged aircraft using satellite images and video posted online. It is unclear how many of the Tu-22s and Tu-95s were operational before the strikes.
Russia confirmed some losses, saying it repelled part of what it called a terrorist attack. It offered no evidence of repelling the strikes.
Lt. Gen. Vasyl Maliuk, head of Ukraine’s main security and intelligence agency, the SBU, said on Monday the order to destroy the warplanes had come directly from President Volodymyr Zelensky.
“The enemy bombed our country from these planes almost every night, and today actually felt that ‘payback is inevitable,’ ” Maliuk said.
After the drone strikes, Russia will be forced to rethink how it operates, stores and defends its remaining strategic-bomber fleet. Russia, like the U.S., often leaves long-range bombers parked outside and easily visible, both for operational reasons and as part of nuclear-disarmament agreements with Washington around the end of the Cold War.
Moscow has been compelled by Kyiv’s steady drone strikes inside Russia to relocate most of the planes to bases far from Ukraine. Indeed, the remoteness of the bases hit on Sunday is part of what made the carefully planned strikes so unexpected. The most distant is about 3,000 miles from Kyiv.
Keeping planes far from Ukraine has meant Russian bombers must take long flights to reach targets, giving Ukraine and Western intelligence agencies chances to observe and prepare for their movement, also adding complexity to Moscow’s attack plans.
Russia now will need to devote more resources to protecting bombers and other valuable military assets. The country has a vast air-defense system, but it lacks sufficient equipment to cover the entire country and protect against all dangers, from long-range missiles to small, slow drones like those used on Sunday.
Zelensky said on Sunday that the attacks on four bases had been prepared and launched inside Russia. The intelligence feat will sow fear within the country and likely prompt Moscow to tighten internal controls and repression.
President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who is seen by many Western intelligence analysts as deeply paranoid, is likely to grow more concerned about internal enemies and take harsh measures in response to the public humiliation.
Russia has used the warplanes to bombard Ukraine with bombs, missiles and drones, hitting a range of civilian targets and killing or wounding thousands of civilians.
The planes Ukraine hit fill a role in Russia’s air-force fleet roughly comparable to the U.S.’s B-52 and B-1 bombers. The U.S. also has stealthy B-2 flyingwing bombers and is developing a successor, the B-21. In total, the U.S. has about 140 operational long-range bombers.
Tu-95s, which first flew in the 1950s as the Soviet Union was developing long-range jet engines, instead use four turbine engines, each with a pair of external propellers that rotate in opposite directions for speed and thrust.
But Russia faces a bigger problem than the age of its planes, which isn’t an inherent flaw. B-52s were designed in 1949, and the U.S. plans to keep around 76 of them flying until at least 2050 because of modernizations.
The deeper issue for Moscow is that its aviation industry shows no sign of being able to design and produce a plane that fills the role of the Tupolevs. If Ukraine destroyed nearly as many as it has claimed, the loss would represent a deep blow to Russia’s status as a global superpower.
bombers represent vital parts of Russian and U.S. ability to deliver nuclear weapons in a war. The other two legs of the nuclear triad are submarines and land-based missiles. Russia’s navy has struggled in recent years to maintain and modernize its equipment. The readiness of its land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and their launch silos is difficult to gauge.
The damage to Russia’s nuclear deterrent comes as countries in Europe have been stepping up spending on nuclear weapons. On Monday, the U.K. said it would build up to 12 new nuclear-powered submarines by the late 2030s and spend 15 billion pounds, or $20.3 billion, upgrading its nuclear-warhead arsenal. The investment is aimed primarily at deterring aggression from Russia and putting its long underfunded military back in shape.
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2025-06-03 10:25:00
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"content": "Fascinating strategic developments regarding the ability to project power.\n\n\nUkraine’s Assault Scrambles Kremlin Strategy\n\nBY DANIEL MICHAELS AND JANE LYTVYNENKO\n\nThe Wall Street Journal\nJun 03, 2025\nSurprise drone strike on warplanes hurts ability to attack U.S., other distant rivals\n\nKYIV, Ukraine—Ukraine’s unprecedented drone strikes on Russian air force bases weaken Moscow’s ability to wage war on its smaller neighbor and undermine its capacity to threaten more-distant rivals such as the U.S.—a shift with potentially far-reaching geostrategic implications.\r\n\nA sizable portion of the fleet Moscow uses to launch guidedmissile attacks on Ukraine—and would rely on to strike adversaries in the event of a nuclear war—was damaged or destroyed in the attacks Sunday.\r\n\nThe strikes cast a cloud over peace talks in Istanbul on Monday, where the two sides met for just more than an hour with little progress toward an agreement. Ukrainian officials said the two sides agreed on further exchanges of prisoners of war. Both sides sent low-level delegations, reflecting slim hopes of any breakthrough.\r\n\nRussia no longer produces the decades-old Tupolev planes that were targeted in the attacks, meaning it has lost a cornerstone of its ability to project military power beyond its borders. Newer Russian planes are more modern and agile but lack vital characteristics of the destroyed bombers, most significantly their range and the quantity of munitions they can carry. Ukraine and open-source intelligence analysts said the attack also destroyed a rare Antonov plane Russia uses for airborne command-and-con\n\ntrol, another capability vital to modern warfare.\r\n\nOf more than 100 Tupolev bombers that Russia is known to have, Ukraine said it had damaged or destroyed more than 40. Open-source intelligence analysts counted at least 14 damaged aircraft using satellite images and video posted online. It is unclear how many of the Tu-22s and Tu-95s were operational before the strikes.\r\n\nRussia confirmed some losses, saying it repelled part of what it called a terrorist attack. It offered no evidence of repelling the strikes.\r\n\nLt. Gen. Vasyl Maliuk, head of Ukraine’s main security and intelligence agency, the SBU, said on Monday the order to destroy the warplanes had come directly from President Volodymyr Zelensky.\r\n\n“The enemy bombed our country from these planes almost every night, and today actually felt that ‘payback is inevitable,’ ” Maliuk said.\r\n\nAfter the drone strikes, Russia will be forced to rethink how it operates, stores and defends its remaining strategic-bomber fleet. Russia, like the U.S., often leaves long-range bombers parked outside and easily visible, both for operational reasons and as part of nuclear-disarmament agreements with Washington around the end of the Cold War.\r\n\nMoscow has been compelled by Kyiv’s steady drone strikes inside Russia to relocate most of the planes to bases far from Ukraine. Indeed, the remoteness of the bases hit on Sunday is part of what made the carefully planned strikes so unexpected. The most distant is about 3,000 miles from Kyiv.\r\n\nKeeping planes far from Ukraine has meant Russian bombers must take long flights to reach targets, giving Ukraine and Western intelligence agencies chances to observe and prepare for their movement, also adding complexity to Moscow’s attack plans.\r\n\nRussia now will need to devote more resources to protecting bombers and other valuable military assets. The country has a vast air-defense system, but it lacks sufficient equipment to cover the entire country and protect against all dangers, from long-range missiles to small, slow drones like those used on Sunday.\r\n\nZelensky said on Sunday that the attacks on four bases had been prepared and launched inside Russia. The intelligence feat will sow fear within the country and likely prompt Moscow to tighten internal controls and repression.\r\n\nPresident Vladimir Putin of Russia, who is seen by many Western intelligence analysts as deeply paranoid, is likely to grow more concerned about internal enemies and take harsh measures in response to the public humiliation.\r\n\nRussia has used the warplanes to bombard Ukraine with bombs, missiles and drones, hitting a range of civilian targets and killing or wounding thousands of civilians.\r\n\nThe planes Ukraine hit fill a role in Russia’s air-force fleet roughly comparable to the U.S.’s B-52 and B-1 bombers. The U.S. also has stealthy B-2 flyingwing bombers and is developing a successor, the B-21. In total, the U.S. has about 140 operational long-range bombers.\r\n\nTu-95s, which first flew in the 1950s as the Soviet Union was developing long-range jet engines, instead use four turbine engines, each with a pair of external propellers that rotate in opposite directions for speed and thrust.\r\n\nBut Russia faces a bigger problem than the age of its planes, which isn’t an inherent flaw. B-52s were designed in 1949, and the U.S. plans to keep around 76 of them flying until at least 2050 because of modernizations.\r\n\nThe deeper issue for Moscow is that its aviation industry shows no sign of being able to design and produce a plane that fills the role of the Tupolevs. If Ukraine destroyed nearly as many as it has claimed, the loss would represent a deep blow to Russia’s status as a global superpower.\r\n\nbombers represent vital parts of Russian and U.S. ability to deliver nuclear weapons in a war. The other two legs of the nuclear triad are submarines and land-based missiles. Russia’s navy has struggled in recent years to maintain and modernize its equipment. The readiness of its land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and their launch silos is difficult to gauge.\r\n\nThe damage to Russia’s nuclear deterrent comes as countries in Europe have been stepping up spending on nuclear weapons. On Monday, the U.K. said it would build up to 12 new nuclear-powered submarines by the late 2030s and spend 15 billion pounds, or $20.3 billion, upgrading its nuclear-warhead arsenal. The investment is aimed primarily at deterring aggression from Russia and putting its long underfunded military back in shape.\n\nShared via PressReader\n\nconnecting people through news",
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