This take suggests that the temporary economic strain caused by a strong dollar (which peaked in mid-January 2025) is fading, leading to a shift from "bad" to "less bad" economic surprises. If true, markets—especially risk assets like Bitcoin—could respond positively.
My Thoughts:
1.
Dollar Strength & Lagging Effects** – A strong dollar tightens global liquidity, pressuring risk assets. If that strength is now subsiding, capital could start flowing back into markets.
2.
Economic Sentiment Shift** – Moving from "bad" to "less bad" doesn’t mean *good*, but markets often front-run improvements. Investors react to *rate of change* more than absolute conditions.
3.
Bitcoin as a Leading Indicator** – Given Bitcoin’s sensitivity to liquidity shifts and risk sentiment, it makes sense that it could be among the first to price in this economic shift.
BIG PICTURE ?
If the worst of the economic slowdown is behind us and liquidity improves, Bitcoin could surge—especially with macro tailwinds like halving effects, institutional adoption, and fiat debasement narratives still in play.
maya
npub182…htzv8
2025-03-19 13:32:48
in reply to nevent1q…atuu
Author Public Key
npub1824ytxe777e483ah97qct2jpfryv9lms9qhk74wadnqyaan6hq3qqhtzv8Published at
2025-03-19 13:32:48Event JSON
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"created_at": 1742391168,
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"content": "This take suggests that the temporary economic strain caused by a strong dollar (which peaked in mid-January 2025) is fading, leading to a shift from \"bad\" to \"less bad\" economic surprises. If true, markets—especially risk assets like Bitcoin—could respond positively. \n\nMy Thoughts: \n\n1. \nDollar Strength \u0026 Lagging Effects** – A strong dollar tightens global liquidity, pressuring risk assets. If that strength is now subsiding, capital could start flowing back into markets. \n\n2. \nEconomic Sentiment Shift** – Moving from \"bad\" to \"less bad\" doesn’t mean *good*, but markets often front-run improvements. Investors react to *rate of change* more than absolute conditions. \n\n3.\nBitcoin as a Leading Indicator** – Given Bitcoin’s sensitivity to liquidity shifts and risk sentiment, it makes sense that it could be among the first to price in this economic shift. \n\nBIG PICTURE ?\n\nIf the worst of the economic slowdown is behind us and liquidity improves, Bitcoin could surge—especially with macro tailwinds like halving effects, institutional adoption, and fiat debasement narratives still in play.",
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