npub18kk07k30ryn960p4cy9s2qdv47zl94lyqwaqamnfr9l3xsvkzmkq8p6me4 (npub18kk…6me4) npub1zl8j5tfhnhmyyy438vkkmf8n8kfzueu9uwpn55yufslr7h7x4nrqzapnyf (npub1zl8…pnyf) I have various hypothesis about the detachment between polls and actual results.
First, I think that polls don't accurately capture the sentiment of the more rural electorate. They traditionally concentrate where the bulk of votes is (i.e. large cities), rather than going after the long tail of rural votes (which, especially in the US, is particularly long).
Second, it *may* be that those who vote for those parties don't actually say that they will vote for those parties when interviewed - either because some of them usually don't have an opinion until literally the last minute, or because they also know that they'll be perceived as intolerant/bigots.
Either way, the poll problem must be definitely solved. I can have a vague idea of what may cause it, but I don't have full access to the raw dataset to prove my hypotheses.
Fabio Manganiello /
npub1v7…ukv0u
2023-11-28 14:14:05
in reply to nevent1q…lffj
Author Public Key
npub1v78mmuz20p6qd6nve30axhqu74avwn4f6z4grhug7755rat7wh3syukv0uPublished at
2023-11-28 14:14:05Event JSON
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"content": "nostr:npub18kk07k30ryn960p4cy9s2qdv47zl94lyqwaqamnfr9l3xsvkzmkq8p6me4 nostr:npub1zl8j5tfhnhmyyy438vkkmf8n8kfzueu9uwpn55yufslr7h7x4nrqzapnyf I have various hypothesis about the detachment between polls and actual results.\n\nFirst, I think that polls don't accurately capture the sentiment of the more rural electorate. They traditionally concentrate where the bulk of votes is (i.e. large cities), rather than going after the long tail of rural votes (which, especially in the US, is particularly long).\n\nSecond, it *may* be that those who vote for those parties don't actually say that they will vote for those parties when interviewed - either because some of them usually don't have an opinion until literally the last minute, or because they also know that they'll be perceived as intolerant/bigots.\n\nEither way, the poll problem must be definitely solved. I can have a vague idea of what may cause it, but I don't have full access to the raw dataset to prove my hypotheses.",
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