The 2025 Bitcoin Report by River Exchange is released!
Here are some of my observations:
(1) The tx-per-second count fell. In their PREVIOUS report (2023) they estimated 6.6 million lightning transactions per month. They now estimate 2.42 million LN transactions per month. That's a drop of over 63%.
(2) Volume rose. Their previous report estimated 78.2M USD in monthly transaction volume. They now estimate 286.5M USD in monthly transaction volume. That's a rise of over 72%. They guess this is due to use of LN on exchanges, over 50% of which now support LN; users tend to deposit/withdraw larger amounts to exchanges.
(3) Looks like LN has something similar to a pareto distribution. 80% of volume is done by 14 nodes: "Our November 2024 dataset was made possible by 14 data providers, representing 79.4% of Lightning Network capacity."
But I question what they mean by "Lightning Network capacity." Usually this means "announced capacity," but Acinq and Blockstream are probably among their data providers, and they know about a lot of unannounced channels. I have asked them on twitter for clarification and I hope they reply soon.
Super Testnet
npub1yx…c399s
2025-02-25 18:38:08
Author Public Key
npub1yxp7j36cfqws7yj0hkfu2mx25308u4zua6ud22zglxp98ayhh96s8c399sPublished at
2025-02-25 18:38:08Event JSON
{
"id": "34d27f95f854d5e51a804fef526ad58c66299e65ede83b13854a0169bc2790f7",
"pubkey": "2183e94758481d0f124fbd93c56ccaa45e7e545ceeb8d52848f98253f497b975",
"created_at": 1740508688,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [
[
"client",
"Yakihonne",
"31990:20986fb83e775d96d188ca5c9df10ce6d613e0eb7e5768a0f0b12b37cdac21b3:1700732875747"
]
],
"content": "The 2025 Bitcoin Report by River Exchange is released!\n\nHere are some of my observations:\n\n(1) The tx-per-second count fell. In their PREVIOUS report (2023) they estimated 6.6 million lightning transactions per month. They now estimate 2.42 million LN transactions per month. That's a drop of over 63%.\n\n(2) Volume rose. Their previous report estimated 78.2M USD in monthly transaction volume. They now estimate 286.5M USD in monthly transaction volume. That's a rise of over 72%. They guess this is due to use of LN on exchanges, over 50% of which now support LN; users tend to deposit/withdraw larger amounts to exchanges.\n\n(3) Looks like LN has something similar to a pareto distribution. 80% of volume is done by 14 nodes: \"Our November 2024 dataset was made possible by 14 data providers, representing 79.4% of Lightning Network capacity.\"\n\nBut I question what they mean by \"Lightning Network capacity.\" Usually this means \"announced capacity,\" but Acinq and Blockstream are probably among their data providers, and they know about a lot of unannounced channels. I have asked them on twitter for clarification and I hope they reply soon.",
"sig": "fa1fdda846f928239c5fa4116e0ca9cc1cc03aaaaed723631249ea0b650a3827b59df33f329ba107c49d365d9a4b0b4131cffac9c09bf0744a33e2d7a0247cb3"
}