The Congressional Budget Office expects about $20 trillion in net new federal bonds to be issued over the next ten years (cumulative deficits). This assumes that 1) interest rates will be lower than now and that also 2) there will be no recessions during that time. If either of those scenario are untrue, bond issuance is likely to be higher than that.
In comparison, at current production rates and prices, about $2.5 trillion worth of new refined gold is expected to be mined over the next ten years. Production can go up a bit, but gold production changes are generally pretty slow within a given decade, especially with current capex. However, price could change a lot depending on how much capital wants to flow in/out.
Finally, at current prices, about $70 billion of new bitcoin will be mined over the next ten years. The production rate cannot materially change due to the difficulty adjustment, but of course price can change a lot depending on how much capital wants to flow in/out.
Anyway, my April newsletter is out and touches on this concept: https://www.lynalden.com/april-2024-newsletter/
LynAlden / Lyn Alden
npub1a2…cw83a
2024-04-22 14:44:50
Author Public Key
npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83aPublished at
2024-04-22 14:44:50Event JSON
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"content": "The Congressional Budget Office expects about $20 trillion in net new federal bonds to be issued over the next ten years (cumulative deficits). This assumes that 1) interest rates will be lower than now and that also 2) there will be no recessions during that time. If either of those scenario are untrue, bond issuance is likely to be higher than that.\n\nIn comparison, at current production rates and prices, about $2.5 trillion worth of new refined gold is expected to be mined over the next ten years. Production can go up a bit, but gold production changes are generally pretty slow within a given decade, especially with current capex. However, price could change a lot depending on how much capital wants to flow in/out.\n\nFinally, at current prices, about $70 billion of new bitcoin will be mined over the next ten years. The production rate cannot materially change due to the difficulty adjustment, but of course price can change a lot depending on how much capital wants to flow in/out.\n\nAnyway, my April newsletter is out and touches on this concept: https://www.lynalden.com/april-2024-newsletter/",
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}