jasontheoriginal on Nostr: This week's fair market value is between 121k powerbellGM2 and 141k S2FGM2 increasing ...

This week's fair market value is between 121k powerbellGM2 and 141k S2FGM2 increasing about 4k every week for the immediate future.

I spent a 1000 plus hours figuring out that BTC's value is either based on S2F or S2F sitting on the BTC actual prices power trendline. I used the monthly delta of Global M2 lagged 13 weeks and smoothed to filter out the noise. Essential GM2's effects make it impossible to get a .95=r^2 with a S2F model because it makes too big of an impact without accounting for it.

With it PowerBellGM2 has an r^2=.975 insanly high and beyond reasonable doubt. STFGM2 has an r^2=.963. Pretty freaking high. They are very similar but S2FGM2 is more reactive of GM2 and less accurate which i am happy about because I found PowerBellGM2 due to the fact that I could not reconcile in my head that S2F does not corrispond to long term BTC price action and either btc price actions power trend line must break or S2F must break.

As of now I don't see a reason for PowerBellGM2 to break unless BTC price starts heading orders of magnitude higher. Like 1.5mil this cycle. 5 mil next cycle and I just don't see that happening. In that case we'll S2FGM2 might be our winner.

Outside of the first cycle btc price action rally if ever breaks outside of 2SD of their predictions except blow off tops. Time will tell but if you know anything about statistics it is almost beyond doubt that S2F drives price action muted by btc actual price power trendline. Keeping price within the range of human nature. All the other numbers relating to PowerBellGM2 are even more ridiculous than it's r^2. So yeah i think i am pretty close to knowing how to forecast BTC in USD.