plebeian on Nostr: So, lets say you want to DCA into #Bitcoin but would like to know what to expect ...

So, lets say you want to DCA into #Bitcoin but would like to know what to expect based on the history. Yes, yes I know. History does not repeat and we can't make reliable predictions about the future based on the past - but what else do we have?

Anyway I have made a simulation, actually 100k simulations to see what is the distribution of results if one starts DCAing into Bitcoin at a random point in the past and what is the result after random number of days.

And this is the result



X axis shows how many days you DCA and Y axis show what is the return on invested capital.

Remember there is 100.000 simulations or dots on this image and the distribution is truly amazing.

I have so many questions about this.

Why are there orderly empty spaces in the graph that do not have any dots?

Why does it look like a wave a surfer would kill for?

WHY DOES IT NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING RANDOM

Anyway if you are interested in numerical statistical results here it is