📅 Original date posted:2015-08-30
📝 Original message:
>
> I'm not sure the fine is necessarily small relative to the blockchain
> fees, though (especially if the blockchain fee is zero...)? A long
> chain might get fees into the 1% range, and for a moderate sized
> payment ($5 coffee, 20 mBTC) that would be .2 mBTC, exceeding a 1kB
> txn fee of .1 mBTC...
You assume the present-day exchange rate. When scaling towards larger
numbers of users and transactions, the exchange rate will increase a
lot. This will make the blockchain tx fee much worse. With increasing
numbers of users the route length in Lightning might also increase a bit
(hence increase its tx fee too), but the situation is much better than
with in-blockchain transactions.
A very simplistic estimate of the exchange rate in a very ambitious
scenario: assume a future world of 10e9 people, who have all reached
developed-nation wealth, and who use Bitcoin for all their finances.
Each of them can have 2.1 mBTC of savings. Assuming the average
developed-nation person has about $10e3 savings in today's dollars, 2.1
mBTC savings in our scenario should be equivalent to $10e3 in today's
dollars. So that is $4800 / mBTC = $4.8 mln / BTC! Note that the actual
exchange rate in our hypothetical scenario will be much higher, since
the dollar will have become worthless.
CJP
>
CJP [ARCHIVE] /
npub13q…cuzdm
2023-06-09 12:44:07
in reply to nevent1q…gqak
Author Public Key
npub13q863scgpsaanrjhfn7dd4h48lgnupgkcs828arzj4pckrq8hh6s4cuzdmPublished at
2023-06-09 12:44:07Event JSON
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"content": "📅 Original date posted:2015-08-30\n📝 Original message:\n\u003e \n\u003e I'm not sure the fine is necessarily small relative to the blockchain\n\u003e fees, though (especially if the blockchain fee is zero...)? A long\n\u003e chain might get fees into the 1% range, and for a moderate sized\n\u003e payment ($5 coffee, 20 mBTC) that would be .2 mBTC, exceeding a 1kB\n\u003e txn fee of .1 mBTC...\n\nYou assume the present-day exchange rate. When scaling towards larger\nnumbers of users and transactions, the exchange rate will increase a\nlot. This will make the blockchain tx fee much worse. With increasing\nnumbers of users the route length in Lightning might also increase a bit\n(hence increase its tx fee too), but the situation is much better than\nwith in-blockchain transactions.\n\nA very simplistic estimate of the exchange rate in a very ambitious\nscenario: assume a future world of 10e9 people, who have all reached\ndeveloped-nation wealth, and who use Bitcoin for all their finances.\nEach of them can have 2.1 mBTC of savings. Assuming the average\ndeveloped-nation person has about $10e3 savings in today's dollars, 2.1\nmBTC savings in our scenario should be equivalent to $10e3 in today's\ndollars. So that is $4800 / mBTC = $4.8 mln / BTC! Note that the actual\nexchange rate in our hypothetical scenario will be much higher, since\nthe dollar will have become worthless.\n\nCJP\n\n\u003e",
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