You are conflating random outcomes with games of skill. There's no place you can go from that starting point. FWIW bayesian analysis is what you want to use here.
Adoption is correlated to supply demand dynamics, but folks normally misguess the impact. For example lightning is everywhere but only actually 5000 btc. Capital is more important.
Prohibition is likely to happen on alt coins, these things dont happen fast and are given with lots of notice. There could be prohibition in the next 14 months, but that would be an unexpected game-changing event. More likely is a liquidation. Or something like a contentious fork that could split the chain. Then all bets are off.
However supply/demand with a business-as-usual next year, should see it trend to 100k+.
melvincarvalho / Melvin Carvalho
npub1me…t5c24
2024-11-04 07:39:12
in reply to nevent1q…vg3d
Author Public Key
npub1melv683fw6n2mvhl5h6dhqd8mqfv3wmxnz4qph83ua4dk4006ezsrt5c24Published at
2024-11-04 07:39:12Event JSON
{
"id": "18562344c7d1d58746d5c3d6432fee180a30b02201b7f0403f03107c045eaea7",
"pubkey": "de7ecd1e2976a6adb2ffa5f4db81a7d812c8bb6698aa00dcf1e76adb55efd645",
"created_at": 1730705952,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [
[
"e",
"727271b2cf70b1b0378a29df51972622cd078b336ffb291a64cd2d9217ee7921",
"wss://ditto.pub/relay",
"root",
"de7ecd1e2976a6adb2ffa5f4db81a7d812c8bb6698aa00dcf1e76adb55efd645"
],
[
"e",
"321af06b2e98d6e11f0d54a1a87ec525e775b3fb9a104703cd8c633ae7ed295a",
"wss://ditto.pub/relay",
"reply",
"765609c7ece4a9a5262ace318801e4798394a5908723ec7d4b48f841b488a3e9"
],
[
"p",
"765609c7ece4a9a5262ace318801e4798394a5908723ec7d4b48f841b488a3e9",
"wss://ditto.pub/relay"
]
],
"content": "You are conflating random outcomes with games of skill. There's no place you can go from that starting point. FWIW bayesian analysis is what you want to use here.\n\nAdoption is correlated to supply demand dynamics, but folks normally misguess the impact. For example lightning is everywhere but only actually 5000 btc. Capital is more important.\n\nProhibition is likely to happen on alt coins, these things dont happen fast and are given with lots of notice. There could be prohibition in the next 14 months, but that would be an unexpected game-changing event. More likely is a liquidation. Or something like a contentious fork that could split the chain. Then all bets are off.\n\nHowever supply/demand with a business-as-usual next year, should see it trend to 100k+. ",
"sig": "8a9af7148cb16bbf5cf9527d41a7c927db8563eadab1065a49e5e23e5f349273268a618bbdbeea12e282140f1bb94e082d7a32133a6811df65a780b2e11b9d00"
}