mobiusmoe on Nostr: My pointless thoughts on bitcoin's returns over: a) primarily driven by a network ...

My pointless thoughts on bitcoin's returns over:

a) primarily driven by a network adoption curve
b) adoption curve has followed a power trend to date (96% r2)
c) oscillation around adoption curve has been driven by the halving & global liquidity cycles
d) impact of the halving has weakened relatively over time compared to impact of global liquidity cycles
e) bitcoin is a complete bastard & doesn't give a flying fuck what I think

npub1hxwmegqcfgevu4vsfjex0v3wgdyz8jtlgx8ndkh46t0lphtmtsnsuf40pf 's chart is broadly the inverse of the adoption curve

Michael Howell's work on global liquidity cycles is very interesting:


npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx

nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqpxfzhdwlm3cx9l6wdzyft8w8y9gy607tqgtyfq7tekaxs7lhmxfqyvhwumn8ghj7urjv4kkjatd9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wshsz9mhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wshszxnhwden5te0wdjkuerfwshxummnvekxzun99e3k7mf0qqsvsve6nn3jpdsm8zq4pd04nz3fhwzu5pkdzkslm4v0tgfv0p9ylnggxt9ffnostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqpxfzhdwlm3cx9l6wdzyft8w8y9gy607tqgtyfq7tekaxs7lhmxfqyvhwumn8ghj7urjv4kkjatd9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wshsz9mhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wshszxnhwden5te0wdjkuerfwshxummnvekxzun99e3k7mf0qqsvsve6nn3jpdsm8zq4pd04nz3fhwzu5pkdzkslm4v0tgfv0p9ylnggxt9ff