Trump imposes large tariffs in first year?
https://beta.predyx.com/market/trump-imposes-large-tariffs-in-first-year
Check out this new prediction market. I think there's a very good chance of higher tariffs in year one. Trump's always loved tariffs.
What do you think? Is the 6% average tariff rate too high?
# Description
> Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to YES if the US weighted average tariff reaches at least 6% in any quarter of 2025. As of Q2 2024, the weighted average tariff is 2.4%, with the highest level during Trump’s previous presidency reaching 3.5%. The market will resolve based on calculations by Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist. • If by the fourth quarter of 2025, the tariff has not crossed 6%, the market will resolve to NO. • If any initial estimate or revision for Q1-Q3 2025 shows the tariff exceeding 6% while the market is open, the market will resolve to YES immediately. • The Q4 number will be based on initial data, and the market will close once that data is available. If a different president takes office during 2025, the market will continue to resolve based on the US weighted tariff average under the same rules. If Callum Williams is unavailable, a suitable replacement will be found. Data Source: US Weighted Average Tariff (FRED): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e Callum Williams on X (Twitter): https://x.com/econcallum
originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/830260
Undisciplined /
npub1t4…w4jj5
2024-12-30 18:27:45
Author Public Key
npub1t49ker2fyy2xc5y7qrsfxrp6g8evsxluqmaq09xt7uuhhzsurm3srw4jj5Published at
2024-12-30 18:27:45Event JSON
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"content": "Trump imposes large tariffs in first year?\nhttps://beta.predyx.com/market/trump-imposes-large-tariffs-in-first-year\n\nCheck out this new prediction market. I think there's a very good chance of higher tariffs in year one. Trump's always loved tariffs.\n\nWhat do you think? Is the 6% average tariff rate too high?\n\n# Description\n\u003e Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to YES if the US weighted average tariff reaches at least 6% in any quarter of 2025. As of Q2 2024, the weighted average tariff is 2.4%, with the highest level during Trump’s previous presidency reaching 3.5%. The market will resolve based on calculations by Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist. • If by the fourth quarter of 2025, the tariff has not crossed 6%, the market will resolve to NO. • If any initial estimate or revision for Q1-Q3 2025 shows the tariff exceeding 6% while the market is open, the market will resolve to YES immediately. • The Q4 number will be based on initial data, and the market will close once that data is available. If a different president takes office during 2025, the market will continue to resolve based on the US weighted tariff average under the same rules. If Callum Williams is unavailable, a suitable replacement will be found. Data Source: US Weighted Average Tariff (FRED): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e Callum Williams on X (Twitter): https://x.com/econcallum\n\noriginally posted at https://stacker.news/items/830260",
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}