📅 Original date posted:2021-11-15
📝 Original message:
It seems to me there can be no such law unless P=NP. Which would also imply
Bitcoin is worthless.
Joost Jager <joost.jager at gmail.com> schrieb am Mo., 15. Nov. 2021, 13:44:
> One direction that I explored is to start with a statement by the user in
> this form:
>
> "If there is a route with a success probability of 50%, then I am willing
> to pay up to 1.8x the routing fee for an alternative route that has a 80%
> success probability"
>
> I like this because it isn't an abstract weight or factor. It is actually
> clear what this means.
>
> What I didn't yet succeed in is to find a model where I can plug in 50%,
> 80% and 1.8x and generalizes it to arbitrary inputs A% and B%. But it seems
> to me that there must be some probabilistic equation / law / rule / theorem
> / ... that can support this.
>
> Joost.
>
> On Mon, Nov 15, 2021 at 4:25 PM Joost Jager <joost.jager at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> In Lightning pathfinding the two main variables to optimize for are
>> routing fee and reliability. Routing fee is concrete. It is the sat amount
>> that is paid when a payment succeeds. Reliability is a property of a route
>> that can be expressed as a probability. The probability that a route will
>> be successful.
>>
>> During pathfinding, route options are compared against each other. So for
>> example:
>>
>> Route A: fee 10 sat, success probability 50%
>> Route B: fee 20 sat, success probability 80%
>>
>> Which one is the better route? That depends on user preference. A patient
>> user will probably go for route A in the hope of saving on fees whereas for
>> a time-sensitive payment route B looks better.
>>
>> It would be great to offer this trade-off to the user in a simple way.
>> Preferably a single [0, 1] value that controls the selection process. At 0,
>> the route is only optimized for fees and probabilities are ignored
>> completely. At 1, the route is only optimized for reliability and fees are
>> ignored completely.
>>
>> But how to choose between the routes A and B for a value somewhere in
>> between 0 and 1? For example 0.5 - perfect balance between reliability and
>> fee. But what does that mean exactly?
>>
>> Anyone got an idea on how to approach this best? I am looking for a
>> simple formula to decide between routes, preferably with a reasonably sound
>> probability-theoretical basis (whatever that means).
>>
>> Joost
>>
> _______________________________________________
> Lightning-dev mailing list
> Lightning-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org
> https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/lightning-dev
>
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Stefan Richter [ARCHIVE] /
npub19f…f4wf0
2023-06-09 13:04:25
in reply to nevent1q…xe9n
Author Public Key
npub19fnl48y9j4fk9w0a284mqvszq6fuppelqp2tcxf0s37l95avdtussf4wf0Published at
2023-06-09 13:04:25Event JSON
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"content": "📅 Original date posted:2021-11-15\n📝 Original message:\nIt seems to me there can be no such law unless P=NP. Which would also imply\nBitcoin is worthless.\n\nJoost Jager \u003cjoost.jager at gmail.com\u003e schrieb am Mo., 15. Nov. 2021, 13:44:\n\n\u003e One direction that I explored is to start with a statement by the user in\n\u003e this form:\n\u003e\n\u003e \"If there is a route with a success probability of 50%, then I am willing\n\u003e to pay up to 1.8x the routing fee for an alternative route that has a 80%\n\u003e success probability\"\n\u003e\n\u003e I like this because it isn't an abstract weight or factor. It is actually\n\u003e clear what this means.\n\u003e\n\u003e What I didn't yet succeed in is to find a model where I can plug in 50%,\n\u003e 80% and 1.8x and generalizes it to arbitrary inputs A% and B%. But it seems\n\u003e to me that there must be some probabilistic equation / law / rule / theorem\n\u003e / ... that can support this.\n\u003e\n\u003e Joost.\n\u003e\n\u003e On Mon, Nov 15, 2021 at 4:25 PM Joost Jager \u003cjoost.jager at gmail.com\u003e wrote:\n\u003e\n\u003e\u003e In Lightning pathfinding the two main variables to optimize for are\n\u003e\u003e routing fee and reliability. Routing fee is concrete. It is the sat amount\n\u003e\u003e that is paid when a payment succeeds. Reliability is a property of a route\n\u003e\u003e that can be expressed as a probability. The probability that a route will\n\u003e\u003e be successful.\n\u003e\u003e\n\u003e\u003e During pathfinding, route options are compared against each other. So for\n\u003e\u003e example:\n\u003e\u003e\n\u003e\u003e Route A: fee 10 sat, success probability 50%\n\u003e\u003e Route B: fee 20 sat, success probability 80%\n\u003e\u003e\n\u003e\u003e Which one is the better route? That depends on user preference. A patient\n\u003e\u003e user will probably go for route A in the hope of saving on fees whereas for\n\u003e\u003e a time-sensitive payment route B looks better.\n\u003e\u003e\n\u003e\u003e It would be great to offer this trade-off to the user in a simple way.\n\u003e\u003e Preferably a single [0, 1] value that controls the selection process. At 0,\n\u003e\u003e the route is only optimized for fees and probabilities are ignored\n\u003e\u003e completely. At 1, the route is only optimized for reliability and fees are\n\u003e\u003e ignored completely.\n\u003e\u003e\n\u003e\u003e But how to choose between the routes A and B for a value somewhere in\n\u003e\u003e between 0 and 1? For example 0.5 - perfect balance between reliability and\n\u003e\u003e fee. But what does that mean exactly?\n\u003e\u003e\n\u003e\u003e Anyone got an idea on how to approach this best? I am looking for a\n\u003e\u003e simple formula to decide between routes, preferably with a reasonably sound\n\u003e\u003e probability-theoretical basis (whatever that means).\n\u003e\u003e\n\u003e\u003e Joost\n\u003e\u003e\n\u003e _______________________________________________\n\u003e Lightning-dev mailing list\n\u003e Lightning-dev at lists.linuxfoundation.org\n\u003e https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/lightning-dev\n\u003e\n-------------- next part --------------\nAn HTML attachment was scrubbed...\nURL: \u003chttp://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/lightning-dev/attachments/20211115/3533a287/attachment.html\u003e",
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