📅 Original date posted:2021-11-20
📝 Original message:
On Mon, Nov 15, 2021 at 04:25:26PM +0100, Joost Jager wrote:
> Reliability is a property of a route that can
> be expressed as a probability. The probability that a route will be
> successful.
I don't think users care about the abstract concept of reliability
that's being returned by the pathfinding code here. What users care
about is "how long will it take for my payment to make the point-of-sale
terminal turn green so I can walk away with my warm beverage?"
This is basically analogous to the fee optimization question that
onchain wallets have been asking users for years: how many blocks do you
want to wait for [the first] confirmation? The way that's presented to
users in software like Bitcoin Core is,
2 blocks (~20 minutes), x fee
6 blocks (~60 minutes), y fee
36 blocks (~6 hours), z fee
etc...
The onchain estimates in Bitcoin Core are based[1] on a 95% threshold.
If LN software speculatively chooses a series of attempts with a similar
95%, accounting for things like the probability of a stuck payment (made
worse by longer CLTV timeouts on some paths), it could present users
with the same sort of options:
~1 second, x fee
~3 seconds, y fee
~10 seconds, z fee
This allows the software to use its reliability scoring efficiently in
choosing what series of payment attempts to make and presents to the
user the information they need to make a choice appropriate for their
situation. As a bonus, it makes it easier for wallet software to move
towards a world where there is no user-visible difference between
onchain and offchain payments, e.g.:
~1 second, w fee
~15 seconds, x fee
~10 minutes, y fee
~60 minutes, z fee
-Dave
[1] https://gist.github.com/morcos/d3637f015bc4e607e1fd10d8351e9f41
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David A. Harding [ARCHIVE] /
npub16d…x4wrd
2023-06-09 13:04:26
in reply to nevent1q…wtzw
Author Public Key
npub16dt55fpq3a8r6zpphd9xngxr46zzqs75gna9cj5vf8pknyv2d7equx4wrdPublished at
2023-06-09 13:04:26Event JSON
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"content": "📅 Original date posted:2021-11-20\n📝 Original message:\nOn Mon, Nov 15, 2021 at 04:25:26PM +0100, Joost Jager wrote:\n\u003e Reliability is a property of a route that can\n\u003e be expressed as a probability. The probability that a route will be\n\u003e successful.\n\nI don't think users care about the abstract concept of reliability\nthat's being returned by the pathfinding code here. What users care\nabout is \"how long will it take for my payment to make the point-of-sale\nterminal turn green so I can walk away with my warm beverage?\"\n\nThis is basically analogous to the fee optimization question that\nonchain wallets have been asking users for years: how many blocks do you\nwant to wait for [the first] confirmation? The way that's presented to\nusers in software like Bitcoin Core is,\n\n2 blocks (~20 minutes), x fee\n6 blocks (~60 minutes), y fee\n36 blocks (~6 hours), z fee\netc...\n\nThe onchain estimates in Bitcoin Core are based[1] on a 95% threshold.\n\nIf LN software speculatively chooses a series of attempts with a similar\n95%, accounting for things like the probability of a stuck payment (made\nworse by longer CLTV timeouts on some paths), it could present users\nwith the same sort of options:\n\n~1 second, x fee\n~3 seconds, y fee\n~10 seconds, z fee\n\nThis allows the software to use its reliability scoring efficiently in\nchoosing what series of payment attempts to make and presents to the\nuser the information they need to make a choice appropriate for their\nsituation. As a bonus, it makes it easier for wallet software to move\ntowards a world where there is no user-visible difference between\nonchain and offchain payments, e.g.:\n\n~1 second, w fee\n~15 seconds, x fee\n~10 minutes, y fee\n~60 minutes, z fee\n\n-Dave\n\n[1] https://gist.github.com/morcos/d3637f015bc4e607e1fd10d8351e9f41\n-------------- next part --------------\nA non-text attachment was scrubbed...\nName: signature.asc\nType: application/pgp-signature\nSize: 833 bytes\nDesc: not available\nURL: \u003chttp://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/lightning-dev/attachments/20211120/dbb8d3d7/attachment.sig\u003e",
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