SovereignLife on Nostr: Some thoughts passing through my head this morning, regarding the big "Balaji Bet". ...

Some thoughts passing through my head this morning, regarding the big "Balaji Bet".

This "bet" is causing a big stir. People are in disbelief. Others wondering how such a smart guy can be making such a bet unless he has insights most others don't have.

At first glance, the very idea that bitcoin could reach $1 million in 90 days seems absurd. So I thought about it for quite some time and realised that for such a thing to happen would require massive bank failures, requiring ever-more bailout dollars, leading to more inflation - worse still, hyperinflation.

So the real question is, is it possible that such a situation and the follow-on hyperinflation to emerge within 90 days? If that's possible, then bitcoin could rise exponentially.

Some have commented that in such a scenario bitcoin at $1 million wouldn't actually be worth $1 million as we know it today, due to such hyperinflation. In other words, they're saying its purchasing power wouln't change much.

I don't agree with that, and this is why. It doesn't require the full emergence of hyperinflation to trigger a panice run to bitcoin, just the conviction/fear that it's going to happen. In other words, people front-running anticipated hyperinflation could easily push up bitcoin's price well before the full devaluation of the currency arrived.

Others are saying that the amount of capital required to fund a $1 million price tag for bitcoin is too much, so it can't happen. But is that really the case? As I write this, bitcoin is around $28K with a market cap of $540.46 billion.

To reach a $1 million price bitcoin needs to rise by a factor of 35.7 times. That would require 35.7 times the current market cap. That's $19.29 trillion.

The current market capitalisation of gold is $12.75 trillion - so essentially bitcoin would need a market cap of around 1.5 times that of gold. Given that there's a ton load of money outside of the gold market, this doesn't seem unrealistic to me.

Finally, I come back to a basic bitcoin foundational premise, the expectation of hyperbitcoinisation at some point. I've thought about this a lot over the past 10 years or so, wondering how long it would take to arrive at such a situation.

One thing I do know, it's not going to happen gradually by "educating" people and "orange-pilling" them. The percentage of the world's population that would ever be persuading by such a strategy is miniscule.

No, the only way the masses of people around the world would adopt bitcoin was because they have no choice, as in an emergency. There will be no hyperbitcoinisation without a financial crisis of some sort - like a massive failure of the global financial system.

So what Balaji is betting on, is the emergence of such a crisis within 90 days. That is the basis of his bet for bitcoin to reach $1 million.

Personally, my mind is unable to fully grasp a reality like that. However, when I look at history I realise that massive "black swan" events do happen. The global order does change. The financial system has changed. We do have an unsustainable global debt problem - caused by the very nature of the financial system itself, based as it is on debt-based money.

My current state of mind is that such an event is possible, but impossible to be certain about as to timing. So unless Balaji has "inside" information, his definitive timing of "within 90 days" seems very inflexible.

So I am left with holding two thoughts in my mind. The scenario outlined is certainly posssible, but the timeline can't be accurately predicted. As a result, I will watch with great interest what happens in the global financial markets in the next three months in the hope I can arrive at some clarity and increased understanding.

Meanwhile, I'm holding on to my bitcoin!