TL;DR→ Is Bitcoin's price rise (NGU technology) baked into its DNA?
→ Is it just macro liquidity chasing a speculative asset?
It's a little bit of both!!!
.........................................................................................................................................
I ran the numbers. I tortured the data. I optimized for truth.
R² = 0.964823
That means ~96.5% of Bitcoin's price behavior can be explained by just two things:
Stock-to-Flow (hardwired supply schedule)
Global M2 Liquidity
People love to argue whether Bitcoin's price rises are inevitable or just lucky timing.
I asked a better question:
How close can I come to proving Bitcoin's NGU is hardwired?
What I did:
Started with classic Stock-to-Flow (S2F) → supply-driven scarcity
Shifted from BTC price to Market Cap → better reflection of total valuation
Realized market psychology lags reality → applied a 8-week lag to changes in Global M2
Weighted M2 changes using log1p → big liquidity spikes aren’t linearly felt
Smoothed M2 over 26 weeks → humans digest slowly, FOMO and fear fade over ~half a year
S2F calculated using a 52-week rolling flow → captures true market-perceived scarcity
Lagged S2F by 13 weeks → market digests halvenings slower than Twitter does
The Result:
R² = 0.964823
That means:
~96.5% of Bitcoin's price behavior is explained by S2F and lagged liquidity.
Not speculation.
Not vibes.
Not hopium.
Math. Yeah I probably lost the plot, AMA! 🤣 😂