LukeoftheOzarks on Nostr: As someone from way outside the system of finance, I've taken a deep dive trying to ...

As someone from way outside the system of finance, I've taken a deep dive trying to understand both the current world financial system and Bitcoin.

I'm still no expert, but a few things stand out.

1. The problems of the US dollar and the US government are not necessarily one and the same. If the US dollar were to somehow vaporize into thin air, it is entirely possible the dollar would continue to exist and perhaps even flourish.

2. The dollar is a worldwide ledger system that can potentially have remarkable staying power as it is backed by debt even though reserve requirements seem to have mostly going away entirely.

3. Our current banking system existed well before the Federal Reserve and the dollar as we know it. I will continue to exist after the Federal Reserve is gone.

4. Even if we were to go to a hard money Bitcoin standard and/or some sort of truly free market system, it is not unthinkable that fractional reserve banking could continue to exist. In fact, it may be inevitable.

5. It seems clear that the US dollar/eurodollar will continue to strengthen in relation to other currencies around the world.

6. It is possible that the US dollar managers could mess it up by doing things like weaponizing it as they did with Russia.

7. The US Federal reserve has little real power but significant influence.

8. Treasuries are bought around the world as a hedge against devaluation of collapsing currencies and for other reasons as a safe haven virtually ensuring a robust treasury market well into the future, probably at least through the rest of this decade which will likely allow the US government to continue It's drunken course of unrestrained spending.

9. Bitcoin seems like it is here to stay but will likely coexist alongside the US dollar and be incorporated into the current banking system.

10. Even if Bitcoin reaches mass market adoption, we may still be swiping Visa cards and have access to dollars.

11. How the US government financial crisis will end is far from certain. I'm leaning towards some sort of hard default. Given that the current administration is poking Texas with a stick right now with immigration policy, I could see a situation where if states were to secede, the government would hard default on certain debts and obligations as the states deciding to secede would be very unlikely to choose to take the debt with them and the remaining states would probably be unlikely to want to retain it assuming a significant loss of revenue from multiple states. A scenario like this playing out sometime within the next 50 years seems entirely plausible to me. But how this ends, is far from a foregone conclusion. The only thing that is certain is that it is not ultimately sustainable forever.

12. Given the significant uncertainty, these are times to increase your personal and family's resilience in every way.