That’s 3 in 96 hours.
Suppose a gambler with unlimited credit starts at a deficit and plays potentially an infinite number of trials to try to reach breakeven. We can calculate the probability he ever reaches breakeven, or that an attacker ever catches up with the honest chain, as follows [8]:
p = probability an honest node finds the next block
q = probability the attacker finds the next block
qz = probability the attacker will ever catch up from z blocks behind
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/03/12/crypto-friendly-signature-bank-shut-down-by-state-regulators-fed/
TargetInflation / JSON Meyers
npub1j2…56hms
2023-03-12 23:00:20
Author Public Key
npub1j2cw25ns44recx5ehpaqg6qk2vmhtqq4zp0q9ygl4qz722kqxv3qc56hmsPublished at
2023-03-12 23:00:20Event JSON
{
"id": "9edd9f55dc55497e30e6c8f9fc36c1c3dfaa6bd950daab6e027635784558de50",
"pubkey": "92b0e55270ad479c1a99b87a0468165337758015105e02911fa805e52ac03322",
"created_at": 1678662020,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [],
"content": "That’s 3 in 96 hours.\n\nSuppose a gambler with unlimited credit starts at a deficit and plays potentially an infinite number of trials to try to reach breakeven. We can calculate the probability he ever reaches breakeven, or that an attacker ever catches up with the honest chain, as follows [8]: \n\np = probability an honest node finds the next block \nq = probability the attacker finds the next block \nqz = probability the attacker will ever catch up from z blocks behind\n\n\nhttps://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/03/12/crypto-friendly-signature-bank-shut-down-by-state-regulators-fed/",
"sig": "22cde5454631b889f2c3b8e9edd3ad239865644402ba4c16c5a67088a2a52b9aa696cbe42162a5f193241e9ad8a69263686e5ccf73f08bbd812a812429f10a1b"
}