Are risk-free market interest rates (use FEDFUNDS as the index) going back to zero?
We just completed the "steady-state" long term bull run trend in risk-free market interest rates from 1980 until now.
We are now entering a "steady-state" long term bear market trend in risk-free market interest rates like the post-WW2 to early 1980s era.
Since the federal reserve does not control the dampened "steady-state" long term market interest rates and plays at the margins, if the federal reserve enters the market to force rates back to zero or exits the market and allows a spike, "transient" upset conditions will manifest as either deflationary economic stress (area under the interest rate curves for the rising interest rates case) or crack up boom hyperinflationary economic stress (resonance at the forcing frequency of zero percent interest rates).
The economic system as we know it will demand dampened gradually rising market interest rates and gradually rising global M2 to limit the severe economic stress of the deflation/inflation extremes until the transition to a new flavor of economic system is complete.
We are kicking the can through the zero boundary interest rate part of the long term cycle right about now and the transition to a new flavor of economic system has begun right about now.
Signal = gradually accumulate and hodl BTC as a self funded inurance policy.
#godspeed #fedfunds #btc #engineering #crackupboom #economictoughness #riskfree #M2 #federalreserve
mach1ct
npub1sm…pp229
2025-03-17 15:48:38
Author Public Key
npub1smd88d704gu89sw3tu2m9vhvj9s9gl8rh3zgxupcrx93alqep0psepp229Published at
2025-03-17 15:48:38Event JSON
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"content": "Are risk-free market interest rates (use FEDFUNDS as the index) going back to zero? \n\nWe just completed the \"steady-state\" long term bull run trend in risk-free market interest rates from 1980 until now.\n\nWe are now entering a \"steady-state\" long term bear market trend in risk-free market interest rates like the post-WW2 to early 1980s era. \n\nSince the federal reserve does not control the dampened \"steady-state\" long term market interest rates and plays at the margins, if the federal reserve enters the market to force rates back to zero or exits the market and allows a spike, \"transient\" upset conditions will manifest as either deflationary economic stress (area under the interest rate curves for the rising interest rates case) or crack up boom hyperinflationary economic stress (resonance at the forcing frequency of zero percent interest rates). \n\nThe economic system as we know it will demand dampened gradually rising market interest rates and gradually rising global M2 to limit the severe economic stress of the deflation/inflation extremes until the transition to a new flavor of economic system is complete.\n\nWe are kicking the can through the zero boundary interest rate part of the long term cycle right about now and the transition to a new flavor of economic system has begun right about now. \n\nSignal = gradually accumulate and hodl BTC as a self funded inurance policy. \n\n\n#godspeed #fedfunds #btc #engineering #crackupboom #economictoughness #riskfree #M2 #federalreserve ",
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