BTC_P2P on Nostr: Shucks nostr:note1rf52nsdv2vv8ucup3azck80nhqrpvwf25v6w8r4z4ryrmzfu993q9r294r

quoting
note1rf5…294r

> the sender doesn't know what happens afterwards, therefore trackign isnt possible

Chainalysis managed to do it multiple times in the attached video, starting at 26:55.

They start with the easy "first step" where Morphtoken told them they sent the money to the perp. From there, they trace it forward four times. At 30:43 they identify a payment from the perp to either ChangeNow or Liquid Exchange; at 32:49 they identify a payment from the perp to Exodus Wallet, though they say even their advanced tracing software was not able to generate high confidence for this particular trace, and they aren't sure where he sent it, nor which output was his change output.

The trail runs cold for that particular txo, so at 34:55 they go back to the drawing board and identify a different "first step" where Morphtoken told them they sent money to the perp. At 35:08 they conclude that he sent this txo to one of two places: Exodus Wallet or a mining pool.

From there, they successfully identify his change output (at 36:36) so they continue tracing the perp's money, where they learn -- at 36:51 -- that sent his money to a centralized exchange or a merchant's point-of-sale website. One of those confirmed that he sent his money to them and that they had his identity info, which is how they nabbed him.

So yeah, saying it "isn't possible" is completely false -- Chainalysis sometimes manages to do it and there is a video explainer of how they do it with plenty of screenshots so you can follow what's going on.