BullB on Nostr: **Expanded Financial Projections for Boaz Trading PLC** *Note: Revised to reflect ...

**Expanded Financial Projections for Boaz Trading PLC**
*Note: Revised to reflect corrected global gold prices (~$61,000/kg or ETB 3,360,000/kg at 55 ETB/USD).*

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### **Key Assumptions**
1. **Gold Price**: $1,900/oz (**ETB 3,360,000/kg** post-correction).
2. **Production Scaling**:
- Year 1: **300 kg** (ramp-up phase).
- Year 3: **1,500 kg** (full capacity).
3. **Operational Costs**:
- **Mining & Processing**: $800/oz ($26,800/kg or **ETB 1,474,000/kg**).
- **Royalties & Taxes**: 7% royalty + 25% corporate tax (Ethiopian rates).
4. **Sustainability Costs**: 5% of revenue allocated to “Buy a Forest” and community programs.

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### **Revised Financial Projections**

#### **Year 1 (2024)**
| **Metric** | **Calculation** | **Amount** |
|--------------------------|-----------------------------------------------|--------------------------|
| Revenue | 300 kg × ETB 3,360,000/kg | **ETB 1,008,000,000** ($18.3M) |
| Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)| 300 kg × ETB 1,474,000/kg | ETB 442,200,000 ($8.04M)|
| Gross Profit | ETB 1,008M – ETB 442.2M | ETB 565,800,000 ($10.3M)|
| **Operating Expenses** | | |
| - Sustainability (5%) | 5% × ETB 1,008M | ETB 50,400,000 ($916k) |
| - Marketing/Admin | ETB 10M/month × 12 | ETB 120,000,000 ($2.18M)|
| **EBITDA** | ETB 565.8M – (ETB 50.4M + ETB 120M) | ETB 395,400,000 ($7.19M)|
| Taxes (25%) | 25% × ETB 395.4M | ETB 98,850,000 ($1.8M) |
| **Net Profit** | ETB 395.4M – ETB 98.85M | **ETB 296,550,000 ($5.39M)** |
| **ROI** | (Net Profit / Total Investment) × 100 | **47.3%** ($5.39M/$11.4M) |

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#### **Year 3 (2026)**
| **Metric** | **Calculation** | **Amount** |
|--------------------------|-----------------------------------------------|--------------------------|
| Revenue | 1,500 kg × ETB 3,360,000/kg | **ETB 5,040,000,000** ($91.6M) |
| COGS | 1,500 kg × ETB 1,474,000/kg | ETB 2,211,000,000 ($40.2M)|
| Gross Profit | ETB 5,040M – ETB 2,211M | ETB 2,829,000,000 ($51.4M)|
| **Operating Expenses** | | |
| - Sustainability (5%) | 5% × ETB 5,040M | ETB 252,000,000 ($4.58M)|
| - Marketing/Admin | ETB 15M/month × 12 | ETB 180,000,000 ($3.27M)|
| **EBITDA** | ETB 2,829M – (ETB 252M + ETB 180M) | ETB 2,397,000,000 ($43.6M)|
| Taxes (25%) | 25% × ETB 2,397M | ETB 599,250,000 ($10.9M)|
| **Net Profit** | ETB 2,397M – ETB 599.25M | **ETB 1,797,750,000 ($32.7M)** |
| **ROI** | (Net Profit / Total Investment) × 100 | **287%** ($32.7M/$11.4M) |

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### **Cash Flow Projections**
| **Year** | **Operating Cash Flow** | **CAPEX & Working Capital** | **Net Cash Flow** |
|----------|-------------------------------|-----------------------------|---------------------------|
| 2024 | ETB 395.4M ($7.19M) | ETB 68.75M ($1.25M) | ETB 326.65M ($5.94M) |
| 2025 | ETB 1,198.5M ($21.8M) | ETB 30M ($545k) | ETB 1,168.5M ($21.25M) |
| 2026 | ETB 2,397M ($43.6M) | ETB 50M ($909k) | ETB 2,347M ($42.7M) |

- **Monthly Cash Flow Growth**: From **ETB 27.2M/month ($494k)** in Year 1 to **ETB 195.6M/month ($3.55M)** by Year 3.

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### **Sensitivity Analysis**
| **Scenario** | **Year 3 Net Profit Impact** |
|---------------------------|---------------------------------------|
| Gold Price Drops 10% | ETB 1,617M ($29.4M) (-10%) |
| Production Delays (1,200 kg)| ETB 1,438M ($26.1M) (-20%) |
| Cost Inflation (+15%) | ETB 1,528M ($27.8M) (-15%) |

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### **Key Takeaways**
1. **Correction Impact**: Original projections underestimated revenue by **5,750%** due to gold pricing errors. Revised figures reflect realistic market rates.
2. **Profitability**: Net margins rise to **35.7%** by Year 3, driven by economies of scale and premium ESG pricing.
3. **ROI**: Investors achieve **287% cumulative returns** by Year 3, surpassing the initial 30% target.

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**Conclusion**
Boaz Trading PLC’s financial potential is transformative when aligned with accurate gold pricing and scalable production. With disciplined cost management and sustainability premiums, the project offers investors exponential returns while advancing Ethiopia’s green economy.