Def on Nostr: I see a tendency for Lightning to become increasingly centralized to fewer and fewer ...

I see a tendency for Lightning to become increasingly centralized to fewer and fewer well-connected LSPs, essentially replicating existing payment providers (e.g. VISA). This can reduce privacy and make for "fewer doors to knock on" for influence.

Lightning node operation is significantly more complex than a typical Bitcoin core node, and carries a higher risk (uptime, hot funds, watchtowers to catch cheating, etc.). The long term health of Bitcoin depends on relatively high fee cost, complicating Lightning operation further (e.g. channel closures during high feerate environments).

There is hope though, as introduction of PTLCs, anchor aproaches, etc. can help in rease privacy and reduce risk. Still much more of an active endeavor than flipping a coin 256 times and generating an address.